If he will set out the evidential basis for his statement at Column 258 of Hansard on 25 November 2025 that "Thirty years of COPs have reduced global warming forecasts from 4°—indeed 5°—to something like 2.3° to 2.5°".
Before the Paris Agreement, policies in place put the world on track for around 4°C of warming by 2100. In 2013, Climate Action Tracker estimated close to 4°C of warming, with a one-in-three chance of exceeding 4°C. In 2010, the Emissions Gap Report from the United Nations Environment Programme estimated that even if announced climate pledges were delivered, temperatures could increase by up to 5°C. The latest Emissions Gap Report estimates that Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), mandated by the Paris Agreement, put the world on course for 2.3°C-2.5°C, or 1.9°C if all countries meet their NDC and net zero commitments.