Speeches by Yang.

“To go back to the point about market participants’ views, in 2022 you asked them to estimate their sense of the impact of active QT on gilt yields. Since then, you have stopped asking them that question through the formal process of the survey, but certainly this year, and I think in previous years, investors have writ…”

“Sir Dave, do you want to come in?”

“You did it twice in 2022, but you have not asked the same question since.”

“Dr Dhingra, as another external member of the MPC, do you agree with Dr Mann’s position that the Bank’s estimate of the impact of QT on yields is an underestimate?”

“How much more would you say—twice or three times?”

“Do you think it is more than the Bank’s estimate of 15 to 25 basis points?”

“When you say that it is an executive decision, what do you mean by that?”

“I note that the MPC has, for the first time, split a vote on quantitative tightening, which affects the pace at which the Bank sells Government bonds. Dr Mann, you stated in your decision that you are concerned about upward pressure on medium-term gilt yields. Could you explain what caused your concern?”

“T4. Data from the millennium cohort study suggests that over half of cases of young people not in education, employment or training are attributable to persistent childhood poverty and adverse experiences. I recently visited Starting Point, a charity that helps young people in Reading back into work, and I heard about …”

“I join the Chair of the Treasury Committee in thanking Richard Hughes for his service, and commend him for taking responsibility for the security leak that happened on his watch. In testimony given to the Treasury Committee yesterday, the OBR described the “£21 billion average absolute revision” to their pre-measures f…”

“Professor Allas, you have a particular interest in NHS productivity growth. What is behind the UK’s low productivity growth in public sector work? What would you have liked to see in the Budget that could start to remedy that?”

“What do you mean by “a long time”?”

“For five or six years, then.”

“One of the big decisions that we heard about yesterday was the decision by the OBR to downgrade the UK’s medium-term productivity. Yesterday, I asked Professor Miles, who is the macro forecaster on the committee, why that decision had been made now and not earlier. His answer to that was that he wanted to give two year…”

“I have a particular constituency interest in this because in Reading we have been waiting for the Royal Berkshire Hospital to be rebuilt for many a year now. You have done work comparing capital intensity between different countries. Is capital intensity a problem for the public estate in the UK? How would you seek to …”

“Professor Allas, you mentioned the missing £33 billion—is that right?—of capital investment in the NHS in the last decade. For a figure of that amount in terms of what the Government would need to invest to raise growth, we are clearly constrained by multiple factors. I am keen to hear the panel discuss whether the mai…”

“For you, the main focus for the Government should be to reduce the yield rate and therefore be able to create more space for productive investment. Is that right?”

“The three of you make a consensus decision. Thank you; that is helpful. I have a small point on productivity. Professor Miles, you mentioned the view that you had been too optimistic. An animal has been invoked by journalists to describe that feature, the productivity porcupine, which has spikes above but not below. Th…”

“Does this tend to happen on the committee—for example, Mr Josephs, being the fiscal go-to, gets the say over fiscal issues and you get the say on macro issues, and that you each keep to your own?”

“In the last Budget, there are several increases in the effective rate of tax on income flowing from wealth and, in particular, in the effective rate of tax on dividends. I see that, in relation to behavioural effect, you find that, over the five-year forecast period, the effect of people changing their behaviour in res…”