Written questions by Gethins.

With reference to paragraph 2.28 of the Office of Budget Responsibility's publication entitled Economic and fiscal outlook, published in October 2024, if she will make an estimate of the macro economic cost of the change in overall trade intensity.

HM Treasury does not prepare forecasts for the UK economy and public finances, including assessments of potential impacts of policy changes. These are the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) which confirmed its assessment of EU exit’s economic impacts in its March 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.HM Treasury continues to consider a range of data sources, including trade import and export figures, as part of the department’s ongoing monitoring of the UK economy.The Government is working with the EU to identify areas where we can strengthen cooperation for mutual benefit, and as part of this we will welcome EU leaders to the UK for the first UK-EU Leaders’ Summit on 19 May.

When she plans to reply to correspondence from the hon. Member for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry of 31 January and 25 February 2025, reference SG00234.

The correspondence from the hon. Member for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry was transferred to the Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government. This transfer was confirmed by email on 03 March 2025.

When she plans to respond to correspondence from the hon. Member for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry of 3 November 2024 on loan charges, with reference SG00072.

I can confirm that a response has been sent on 27 February 2025 to the hon. Member for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.

Whether her Department is taking steps to strengthen anti-money laundering regulations.

We are committed to ensuring the UK’s anti-money laundering and counter terrorist financing regime is both effective and proportionate. To that end, a consultation on improving the effectiveness of the Money Laundering Regulations closed in June 2024 and collected feedback on a range of potential changes to the Regulations. HM Treasury is currently analysing this feedback and the Government will publish a response in due course.

If she will make an assessment of the potential merits of placing Russia on a domestic money laundering watchlist.

The UK’s list of high-risk third countries aligns with those countries identified by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) as having strategic deficiencies in their anti-money laundering and counter terrorist financing regimes, which ensures that the identification of high-risk third countries is underpinned by the FATF’s consistent, technical methodology, and robust assessment processes. Russia is not included in either the FATF’s or UK’s list of high-risk third countries. However, regulated businesses should in practice already be taking enhanced due diligence measures in relation to Russia because the UK Money Laundering Regulations require enhanced scrutiny in situations that present a high risk of money laundering or terrorist financing, and the UK’s National Risk Assessment of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing 2020 specifically highlights the significant volume of illicit finance emanating from Russia.

If her Department will provide guidance for businesses on the money laundering risks of transactions (a) directly and (b) indirectly linked to Russia.

The Treasury and the Home Office hold joint responsibility for publishing a periodic national risk assessment which sets out the money laundering and terrorist financing risks in the UK. The national risk assessment provides guidance to regulated firms by informing them of risks and the jurisdictions that these risks may come from. The UK National Risk Assessment of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing 2020 provided an outline of those jurisdictions assessed to be particularly relevant to the cross-border money laundering faced by the UK. This included an assessment of the money laundering risks linked to Russia. The next UK National Risk Assessment is now underway, underpinned by a rigorous process in collaboration with law enforcement and other key stakeholders.The UK has also issued red alerts to the financial sector and other regulated sectors on specific areas of high risk relating to Russia to inform and direct their scrutiny.

With reference to oral contribution of 3 December 2024 by the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, if she will make an overall estimate of the impact of the UK’s exit from the EU.

No. The Government is focussed on resetting the relationship with the EU, which will support economic growth, the central mission of the Government.

What recent assessment her Department has made of the impact of leaving the EU on public finances.

I refer the Hon. member to my answer to his question on this issue during the Topical Questions section of HMT orals today.

With reference to Section 2.28 of the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook, what assessment she has made of the potential impact of a 15% decrease in the UK economy on public finances.

The growth mission is the central mission of the government. Through the growth mission, the government is restoring economic stability, increasing investment, and reforming the economy to drive up prosperity and living standards across the UK. The government sets its fiscal policy on the basis of the official OBR forecast, which is a central case. The OBR confirms the government is on track to meet its fiscal rules.To clarify, section 2.28 of the OBR's latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook refers to a pre-existing judgement that has been captured in their forecasts for many years.

What assessment she has made of the potential impact of leaving the European (a) Customs Union and (b) Single Market on growth.

The UK economy has experienced significant disruption in recent years due to a range of factors including Covid-19, supply chain disruption and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. It remains challenging to separate out the effects of leaving the Customs Union and Single Market from wider global trends affecting the UK economy. It is for the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to provide independent and authoritative analysis and forecasting for the UK public finances. The OBR has estimated that productivity will be 4% lower in the long run than it would have been had the UK not withdrawn from the EU, and that imports and exports will eventually both be 15 per cent lower than had we stayed in the EU. The OBR estimated in March 2024 that 40% of this impact has already materialised.

What assessment her Department has made of the impact of the UK's exit from the EU on public finances.

The Government has no overall estimate of the impact of the UK’s exit from the EU on public finances. As part of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU, the UK agreed the Financial Settlement, which is a methodology for settling pre-existing UK financial obligations to the EU. The European Union Finances Statement 2023 (available in the library of the House and on Gov.uk) sets out HMT Treasury’s estimates of the size of these obligations. As at December 2023, the UK is estimated to have paid £23.8bn (€27.4bn) in net liabilities to date as part of the EU financial settlement. Estimated UK outstanding net liabilities as of December 2023 were £6.4bn (€7.4bn).