Written questions by Stride.

If she will make it her Department’s policy to announce changes to winter fuel payments at fiscal events.

This Government remains absolutely committed to supporting pensioners and giving them the dignity and security they deserve in retirement. The Government took the right action last July to support the public finances. Tough but fair decisions were taken, including making sure Winter Fuel Payments would be targeted at those with the highest need. That principle still stands. As the economy improves, the Government wants to make sure people feel those improvements. The Government wants to ensure that more pensioners are eligible for Winter Fuel Payments.

What estimate she has made of the cost to the public purse of migrants to the UK gaining access to (a) welfare payments and (b) other services as a result of obtaining indefinite leave to remain for each financial year from 2024-25 onward.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) produces forecasts of the UK’s economic and fiscal position.Box 4.5 of the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook published in March 2024 sets out estimated impacts of migration on the fiscal forecast. As the minimum residency required to move to indefinite leave to remain is currently at least 5 years, this falls outside the forecast period. As the OBR says in the March 2024 EFO: ”However, our forecasts will capture the cost of any immigrants from previous cohorts who now claim welfare through Indefinite leave to remain grants because their claims will be included in the outturn data that provides the starting point for our forecast”.

For what reason the planned rollout of the abolition of the Work Capability Assessment has been delayed from 2026, and what the full new planned timetable is for rollout of this reform to (a) new and (b) current claims.

Our Green Paper outlines why we think removing the WCA and moving to using the PIP assessment as the single assessment for additional financial support, is the correct decision for the reformed disability benefits system. Scrapping the Work Capability Assessment will take time, and we need to act now to reset the system. We are making changes to PIP eligibility to ensure it focuses more on those with higher needs, making support more targeted to protect this safety net for future generations. We are also lowering the rate of UC health for new claims from April 2026 to £50 and then freezing the rate until 2029/30 – alongside increasing the standard allowance – to reduce the incentive to define yourself as unfit to work, while still providing a higher rate of benefit for disabled people and those with health conditions with extra costs. Following the Green Paper consultation, we will bring forwards a White Paper in Autumn 2025 to set out our full proposals. This will be followed by further primary legislation, which we expect to take forward in the second session, subject to parliamentary approval. Therefore, the indicative date this will take place will be in 2028/29.

Pursuant to the Answer of 7 April 2025 to Question 43439 on Public Expenditure, the Answer of 26 March 2025 to Question 40157 on Public Expenditure and with reference to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury's statement to the House on 28 October 2024, Official Report, column 562, whether the Chief Secretary will correct the record.

The current budget was last in a sustained surplus between 1998-99 and 2001-02. The last financial year for which the current budget was in surplus was 2018-19, when there was a surplus of 0.0% of GDP. This information is available in the public finances databank, published by the Office for Budget Responsibility: www.obr.uk/data/

With reference to paragraph 3.2 of the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published on 26 March 2025, what changes were made to the reduction in the level of the Universal Credit health element following the certification deadline; and for what reason.

In response to feedback from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government made amendments to the policy parameters of the changes to the Universal Credit health element. The government is freezing the reduced Universal Credit health element level for new claimants, in line with our objectives to rebalance the system, rather than uprating it by Consumer Price Index inflation.This update was made after the statement to the House delivered by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025, once the Office for Budget Responsibility had given its final assessment of the costing and behavioural assumptions associated with the measure. The adjustments were made to ensure we continue to strike the right balance between setting strong work incentives and fiscal sustainability.

Pursuant to the Answer of 26 March 2025 to Question 40157 on Public Expenditure, and with reference to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury's statement to the House on 28 October 2024, Official Report, column 562, whether it is her Department's policy to target an overall budget surplus.

At Autumn Budget 2024, the government confirmed new fiscal rules to put the public finances on a sustainable path, and prioritise investment to support long-term growth. The stability rule is that the current budget must be in surplus in 2029-30, until 29-30 becomes the third year of the forecast period. From that point, the current budget must then remain in balance or in surplus from the third year of the rolling forecast period, where balance is defined as a range: in surplus, or in deficit of no more than 0.5% of GDP. This range will support the government’s commitment to a single fiscal event every year by avoiding the need for policy adjustment at forecasts outside of fiscal events. If the range is used between fiscal events, the current budget must return to surplus from the third year at the following fiscal event.In its March 2025 forecast, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed the government was on track to meet its stability and investment rules two years early. By 2029-30, the current budget is forecast to be in a surplus of £9.9 billion.

With reference to paragraph 3.2 of the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published on 26 March 2025, what changes were made to the universal credit standard allowance increase following the certification deadline; and for what reason.

In response to feedback from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government made amendments to the policy parameters of the Universal Credit standard allowance change. The UC standard allowance will reach £106 per week in 2029-30, an increase above inflation.This update was made after the statement delivered to the House by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025, once the Office for Budget Responsibility had given its final assessment of the costing and behavioural assumptions associated with the measure. The adjustments were made to ensure we continue to strike the right balance between setting strong work incentives and fiscal sustainability.

Whether her Department's proposed reforms to contributory out of work benefits are expected to reduce contributory benefits as a proportion of overall welfare expenditure.

Our proposed reforms to contributory benefits are about creating a more proactive, pro-work system that actually supports individuals. While the reforms are part of a package that will make the benefits system more affordable, they will also ensure that the system continues to provide for those who need it most, while supporting those who can, back into work. We are consulting on establishing a new, simple and clear “Unemployment Insurance” benefit through the reform of contributory working age benefits and we welcome responses. No final decisions have been taken.

What proportion of the additional defence expenditure she announced at the Spring Statement falls under capital departmental expenditure limits; what proportion falls under resource departmental expenditure limits; and for what reason these allocations were arrived at.

The Chancellor’s Spring Statement document, published on 26 March, set out the Resource DEL and Capital DEL uplifts to defence spending over the scorecard period.A greater proportion of the uplift will be Capital DEL funding. This reflects the needs of defence, and will enable the accelerated the adoption of cutting-edge capabilities, and rebuild stockpiles, munitions, and other essentials depleted after a period focussed on international terrorism and global crises. This Capital DEL focus also supports the Chancellor’s mission to boost growth, enabling greater spending on novel and innovative technologies.The allocation of this uplift and the MOD budget will be confirmed as part of the Spending Review 2025, which will conclude on 11 June 2025.

What the net impact of (a) Government policies since 4 July 2024, (b) the Autumn Budget 2024 and (c) the Spring Statement 2025 has been on the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecasts for real household disposable income per person in each financial year between 2024-25 and 2029-30.

HM Treasury does not prepare forecasts for the UK economy. Forecasts, including for real household disposable income per person, are the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). These forecasts are published by the OBR as part of their Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO). The OBR’s assessment of policy decisions at the 2024 Autumn Budget can be found in their October 2024 EFO, available here: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2024/ The OBR’s assessment of policy decisions at the 2025 Spring Statement can be found in their March 2025 EFO, available here: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/ In their March forecast, after accounting for the effects of policy at both events, the OBR forecast was for RHDI per capita to rise by an annual average of 0.5% over this parliament (Q3 2024 – Q2 2029).

What assessment she has made of the potential impact of her Department's proposed reforms to eligibility for Personal Independence Payment on employment.

Information on the impacts of the Pathways to Work Green Paper will be published in due course, and some information was published alongside the Spring Statement. These publications can be found in ‘Pathways to Work: Reforming Benefits and Support to Get Britain Working Green Paper’.A further programme of analysis to support development of the proposals in the Green Paper will be developed and undertaken in the coming months.

Whether capital departmental expenditure by his Department can fund an expansion in the size of the armed forces; and how much and what proportion of the additional defence expenditure announced at the Spring Statement (a) is expected to and (b) could potentially fund an expansion in the size of the armed forces.

Any expansion in the size of the Armed Forces would predominantly result in an increase to resource spending rather than capital spending. However, the capitalisation of workforce costs directly employed in bringing a capital asset into service is allowed under International Accounting Standards. Further detail on how the Department applies workforce capitalisation can be found in the Annual Report and Accounts, available here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/66aa3e400808eaf43b50db19/Ministry_of_Defence_annual_report_and_accounts_2023_to_2024.pdfThe £2.2 billion uplift to the Ministry of Defence (MOD) budget for 2025-26 will support investment in:· Enhancing the UK's programme of joint exercises with NATO allies to ensure we are ready to respond together to the threats we now face.· Investment in advanced technology such as Directed Energy Weapons, which will revolutionise our Armed Forces' capabilities.· Capitalising on the opportunity presented by the buy-back of the MOD Service Families housing stock, to refurbish the defence estate and provide our military families with the homes they deserve.

With reference to paragraph 3.2 of the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published on 26 March 2025, how the policies scored at the Spring Statement differ from the policies announced by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025; and for what reason these policies were changed.

In response to feedback from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government made amendments to the policy parameters of two measures. Firstly, the Universal Credit standard allowance will reach £106 per week in 2029-30, an increase above inflation. This differs to the level of £107 per week in 2029-30, which was the latest policy assumption at the time of the statement to the House delivered by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025. Secondly, the government will freeze the reduced Universal Credit health element level for new claimants, in line with our objectives to rebalance the system, rather than uprating it by Consumer Price Index inflation, which was the policy assumption at the time of the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions’s statement to the House on 18 March 2025. These updates were made after statement, once the Office for Budget Responsibility had given its final assessment of the costings and behavioural assumptions associated with the measures. The adjustments we have made ensure we continue to strike the right balance between setting strong work incentives and fiscal sustainability. This package remains consistent with the government’s Green Paper and the statement to the House made by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025.

What proportion of new style Employment and Support Allowance claims have been in payment for at least (a) three, (b) six, (c) 12, and (d) 18 months for (i) the Work Related Activity Group and (ii) the Support Group.

The following table shows the volume of new style Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) Work Related Activity Group (WRAG) and Support Group (SG) claims that have been in payment for at least three, six, 12 and 18 months. Volumes of ESA claims that have been in payment for at least three, six, 12 and 18 months In payment for at least:Work-related Activity GroupSupport Group3 months6,000708,0006 months5,000701,00012 months1,000677,00018 months-653,000Source: DWP administrative data for Employment and Support AllowanceVolumes have been rounded to the nearest 1,000.

Whether it is her Department's policy that people with (a) more than £16,000 in savings, (b) a full National Insurance record and (c) a work-limiting health condition will not be eligible for support through the benefits system after the time-limited period of the proposed new single contributory benefit has elapsed.

This is not current government policy. We are consulting on plans for a new “Unemployment Insurance”. We are asking about what the right level of support is and how long it should last, and we would welcome your response. No final decisions have been taken. To confirm, both Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment will continue to exist in the reformed system.

In which financial year the current budget was last in surplus.

The last financial year for which the current budget was in surplus was 2018-19, when there was a surplus of £0.8 billion. This was the only surplus since 2001-02, when the current budget was in surplus by £6.9 billion. The OBR has today forecast that the current budget will be in surplus by £6.0 billion in 2027-28, £7.1 billion in 2028-29, and £9.9 billion in 2029-30. This information is available in the Public Sector Finances publication, published by the Office for National Statistics and the Office for Budget Responsibility’s March Economic and Fiscal Outlook published on 26 March.

Whether the £13.4 billion for the armed forces was calculated based on NATO-qualifying spending; and what his Departmental budget will be in the 2027-28 financial year.

The £13.4 billion increase relates to total NATO qualifying defence spend. This is the increase in cash terms between defence spending in 2027-28 and what the UK spends today. HMT is currently undertaking the second phase of the Spending Review, which will be announced on 11 June 2025. This will set Departmental budgets for three years from 2026-27 for RDEL and four years for CDEL, including for the Ministry of Defence.

With reference to the Prime Minister’s oral statement on Defence and Security of 25 February 2025, Official Report, column 631, what the level of defence spending was due to be in the 2027-28 financial year prior to that announcement.

Departmental budgets from 2026-27 to 2028-29 will be determined as part of the ongoing Spending Review, details of which will be announced on 11 June 2025.

What assessment her Department has made of whether real-terms or nominal figures provide the most accurate metric for evaluating an increase in defence spending.

£13.4bn represents the increase in total NATO qualifying defence spending from 2024-25 to 2027-28 based on OBR forecasts. As the Prime Minister has announced, defence spending will reach 2.5% GDP in 2027-28. Our GDP percentage spent on defence is the key metric used in reference to defence spending, in line with our NATO commitments.

Whether the Overseas Development Assistance budget will remain the only funding source for the increase in defence spending throughout this Parliament.

On 25 February 2025 the Prime Minister announced that NATO qualifying defence spending will increase to 2.5% GDP by 2027-28, with Official Development Assistance reducing from 0.5% GNI to 0.3% GNI by the same time point, meaning the uplift is fully funded and that additional funding will be sourced by a reduction in ODA. The final budgets for departments will be announced when the Spending Review concludes on 11 June 2025