Written questions by Stride.

What estimate she has made of the potential impact of the G7 agreement on global minimum tax on additional revenue to the public purse in each of the next five financial years.

The Chancellor, alongside her G7 counterparts, has reached an understanding on a proposed path forward for the global minimum tax, Pillar 2 of the G20/OECD Inclusive Framework project on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS). The G7 published a statement last week that set out our commitment to the core objectives of Pillar 2: tackling multinational tax avoidance and promoting a stable global tax environment that supports fair competition. Recent discussions have taken into account concerns raised by the US Treasury regarding the interaction of the Pillar 2 rules with the US minimum tax system, and have focused on developing a side-by-side approach that maintains a level playing field. Importantly, this agreement includes the removal of the retaliatory tax provision (Section 899) in the US’s legislative proposals, which would have imposed a significant additional tax burden on British businesses. The understanding reached by the G7, and the principles underpinning it, will now be developed in detail and need to be agreed within the wider OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework, which comprises over 140 countries and jurisdictions. Any changes to UK policy resulting from the final, negotiated solution, will be fully costed by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

With reference to paragraph 2.20 of the Spending Review 2025, published on 11 June 2025, if she will provide a breakdown of the £1 billion estimated savings from spending on the asylum system by (a) area of spend, (b) capital vs resource spending and (c) each financial year up to and including 2028-29.

This government inherited an unaffordable and unsustainable asylum pressure, which is why this government has taken action to reduce asylum costs. The Home Secretary’s robust reforms, including investment in the new Border Security Command, are aimed at reducing small boat arrivals, reducing the asylum and appeals backlog and returning those without the right to be here. This will address the underlying causes of high asylum costs by enabling asylum hotel exits and see asylum support costs fall by at least £1 billion a year by 2028-29 compared to 2024-25 spending.

With reference to Table 5.8 of the Spending Review document published on 11 June 2025, what the annual real terms increases in central government funding for policing will be in each financial year up to and including 2028-29; and what the average real terms annual increase will be across the spending review period.

The Phase 2 settlement provides an average 1.7% real terms increase per year in police spending power. Over the SR period, police spending power is projected to increase by an average 2.3% per year in real terms. This reflects estimated funding through a mix of central government funding and precept income via precept funding. The final police precept level and core government funding will be set out in the annual police funding settlement in the usual way.

With reference to paragraph 5.74 of the Spending Review 2025, published on 11 June 2025, whether the 3.1% annual growth figure for local authority spending power assumes all councils increase core council tax by 3% each year and all councils apply the full 2% adult social care precept increase as well; what the annual average real terms increase in grant funding will be between 2023-24 and 2028-29; and what the annual average real terms increase in grant funding will be between 2025-26 and 2028-29.

Table 5.17 of the Spending Review 2025 document refers to an estimated average annual real-terms growth rate for Local Authority (LA) Core Spending Power of 3.1% per year from 2023-24 to 2028-29. The approach to council tax within these estimates is in line with standard practice for LA Core Spending Power figures published by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/explanatory-note-on-core-spending-power-final-local-government-finance-settlement-2025-to-2026/explanatory-note-on-core-spending-power-final-local-government-finance-settlement-2025-to-2026. As also set out in Table 5.17, the estimated average annual real terms increase in grant funding between 2023-24 and 2028-29 for the Local Government Departmental Expenditure Limit (DEL) budget will be 5.2%. Between 2025-26 and 2028-29, it will be 1.1%.

With reference to box 4.A of the Spending Review 2025, published on 11 June 2025, how much of the financial transactions set out in the document are additional to the quantum which was assumed at Autumn Budget 2024; and what estimate her Department has made of the potential impact of this additional activity on (a) public sector net cash requirement, (b) public sector net debt, (c) public sector net debt excluding Bank of England, (d) central government debt interest spending and (e) overall gilt issuance for each financial year up to and including 2029-30, compared to the forecasts published at Spring Statement 2025.

At the Budget last Autumn, the government set out a clear fiscal strategy to stabilise the public finances and underpin growth. This involved introducing new fiscal rules which provide stability, put the public finances on a sustainable path and ensure our public services are sustainably funded. The fiscal rules set in the Autumn have supported the step change needed in investment, kick starting a decade of national renewal. For the first time, the fiscal rules recognise where financial assets generate future returns. At SR25, the government allocated an additional £9.6 billion in financial transactions to good value-for-money investment opportunities identified through the Spending Review process, subject to the robust guardrails set out in the financial transaction control framework. The Treasury does not publish forecasts of the economy or public finances; the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the UK’s official forecaster and provides independent analysis of the UK’s public finances. In its March forecast, the OBR confirmed that the government is on track to meet its fiscal rules, thanks to decisive action taken by the government to put the public finances on a sustainable trajectory and grow the economy. The OBR will publish an updated forecast later this year in the usual way.

With reference to Table 5.8 of the Spending Review, published on 11 June 2025, (a) what analysis informed the estimates for increases in police core spending power and (b) what increases in police council tax precepts were assumed, set out in (i) annual percentage increase terms, (ii) cash terms and (iii) real terms.

Police core spending power refers to the projected total police settlement funding for Counter Terrorism Police and Territorial Police. The Phase 2 settlement provides an average 1.7% real terms increase per year in police spending power. Over the SR period, police spending power is projected to increase by an average 2.3% per year in real terms. The average real terms increase to police core spending power over the SR period was calculated based on the GDP deflator as of Spring Statement 2025. Police core spending power includes projected spending from additional income, including estimated funding from the police council tax precept. However, this remains subject to final decision on precept levels and individual police and crime commissioner decisions. The final police precept level and core government funding will be set out in the annual police funding settlement in the usual way.

If she will make a comparative assessment of the outturn and forecast data for public sector net (a) borrowing, (b) debt, excluding Bank of England debt, and (c) financial liabilities for each financial year from 2024-25 until 2029-30 (i) before and (ii) after 29 July 2024.

The information requested is publicly available. Forecast data is published on the OBR’s website https://obr.uk/publications/. Outturn public finances data is published on the ONS website https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance. At Autumn Budget 2024, the government put the public finances on a sustainable path by strengthening the fiscal framework, including announcing new fiscal rules, and taking difficult decisions on tax, welfare and spending. In March 2025, the Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed that the government is on track to meet its fiscal rules.

For what reason her Department did not make an assessment of the potential impact of the proposed Double Contribution Convention with India on the public purse before agreeing to it.

The OBR will certify the impact of the trade deal including the Double Contributions Convention in the usual way at a fiscal event, once the deal is finalised and ratified. The agreement to negotiate a Double Contributions Convention was made in the context of the wider deal, which will bring billions into the economy.

If she will make it her Department’s policy to announce changes to winter fuel payments at fiscal events.

This Government remains absolutely committed to supporting pensioners and giving them the dignity and security they deserve in retirement. The Government took the right action last July to support the public finances. Tough but fair decisions were taken, including making sure Winter Fuel Payments would be targeted at those with the highest need. That principle still stands. As the economy improves, the Government wants to make sure people feel those improvements. The Government wants to ensure that more pensioners are eligible for Winter Fuel Payments.

What estimate she has made of the cost to the public purse of migrants to the UK gaining access to (a) welfare payments and (b) other services as a result of obtaining indefinite leave to remain for each financial year from 2024-25 onward.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) produces forecasts of the UK’s economic and fiscal position.Box 4.5 of the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook published in March 2024 sets out estimated impacts of migration on the fiscal forecast. As the minimum residency required to move to indefinite leave to remain is currently at least 5 years, this falls outside the forecast period. As the OBR says in the March 2024 EFO: ”However, our forecasts will capture the cost of any immigrants from previous cohorts who now claim welfare through Indefinite leave to remain grants because their claims will be included in the outturn data that provides the starting point for our forecast”.

For what reason the planned rollout of the abolition of the Work Capability Assessment has been delayed from 2026, and what the full new planned timetable is for rollout of this reform to (a) new and (b) current claims.

Our Green Paper outlines why we think removing the WCA and moving to using the PIP assessment as the single assessment for additional financial support, is the correct decision for the reformed disability benefits system. Scrapping the Work Capability Assessment will take time, and we need to act now to reset the system. We are making changes to PIP eligibility to ensure it focuses more on those with higher needs, making support more targeted to protect this safety net for future generations. We are also lowering the rate of UC health for new claims from April 2026 to £50 and then freezing the rate until 2029/30 – alongside increasing the standard allowance – to reduce the incentive to define yourself as unfit to work, while still providing a higher rate of benefit for disabled people and those with health conditions with extra costs. Following the Green Paper consultation, we will bring forwards a White Paper in Autumn 2025 to set out our full proposals. This will be followed by further primary legislation, which we expect to take forward in the second session, subject to parliamentary approval. Therefore, the indicative date this will take place will be in 2028/29.

Pursuant to the Answer of 7 April 2025 to Question 43439 on Public Expenditure, the Answer of 26 March 2025 to Question 40157 on Public Expenditure and with reference to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury's statement to the House on 28 October 2024, Official Report, column 562, whether the Chief Secretary will correct the record.

The current budget was last in a sustained surplus between 1998-99 and 2001-02. The last financial year for which the current budget was in surplus was 2018-19, when there was a surplus of 0.0% of GDP. This information is available in the public finances databank, published by the Office for Budget Responsibility: www.obr.uk/data/

With reference to paragraph 3.2 of the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published on 26 March 2025, what changes were made to the reduction in the level of the Universal Credit health element following the certification deadline; and for what reason.

In response to feedback from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government made amendments to the policy parameters of the changes to the Universal Credit health element. The government is freezing the reduced Universal Credit health element level for new claimants, in line with our objectives to rebalance the system, rather than uprating it by Consumer Price Index inflation.This update was made after the statement to the House delivered by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025, once the Office for Budget Responsibility had given its final assessment of the costing and behavioural assumptions associated with the measure. The adjustments were made to ensure we continue to strike the right balance between setting strong work incentives and fiscal sustainability.

Pursuant to the Answer of 26 March 2025 to Question 40157 on Public Expenditure, and with reference to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury's statement to the House on 28 October 2024, Official Report, column 562, whether it is her Department's policy to target an overall budget surplus.

At Autumn Budget 2024, the government confirmed new fiscal rules to put the public finances on a sustainable path, and prioritise investment to support long-term growth. The stability rule is that the current budget must be in surplus in 2029-30, until 29-30 becomes the third year of the forecast period. From that point, the current budget must then remain in balance or in surplus from the third year of the rolling forecast period, where balance is defined as a range: in surplus, or in deficit of no more than 0.5% of GDP. This range will support the government’s commitment to a single fiscal event every year by avoiding the need for policy adjustment at forecasts outside of fiscal events. If the range is used between fiscal events, the current budget must return to surplus from the third year at the following fiscal event.In its March 2025 forecast, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed the government was on track to meet its stability and investment rules two years early. By 2029-30, the current budget is forecast to be in a surplus of £9.9 billion.

With reference to paragraph 3.2 of the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published on 26 March 2025, what changes were made to the universal credit standard allowance increase following the certification deadline; and for what reason.

In response to feedback from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government made amendments to the policy parameters of the Universal Credit standard allowance change. The UC standard allowance will reach £106 per week in 2029-30, an increase above inflation.This update was made after the statement delivered to the House by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025, once the Office for Budget Responsibility had given its final assessment of the costing and behavioural assumptions associated with the measure. The adjustments were made to ensure we continue to strike the right balance between setting strong work incentives and fiscal sustainability.

Whether it is her Department's policy that people with (a) more than £16,000 in savings, (b) a full National Insurance record and (c) a work-limiting health condition will not be eligible for support through the benefits system after the time-limited period of the proposed new single contributory benefit has elapsed.

This is not current government policy. We are consulting on plans for a new “Unemployment Insurance”. We are asking about what the right level of support is and how long it should last, and we would welcome your response. No final decisions have been taken. To confirm, both Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment will continue to exist in the reformed system.

What assessment she has made of the potential impact of her Department's proposed reforms to eligibility for Personal Independence Payment on employment.

Information on the impacts of the Pathways to Work Green Paper will be published in due course, and some information was published alongside the Spring Statement. These publications can be found in ‘Pathways to Work: Reforming Benefits and Support to Get Britain Working Green Paper’.A further programme of analysis to support development of the proposals in the Green Paper will be developed and undertaken in the coming months.

Whether capital departmental expenditure by his Department can fund an expansion in the size of the armed forces; and how much and what proportion of the additional defence expenditure announced at the Spring Statement (a) is expected to and (b) could potentially fund an expansion in the size of the armed forces.

Any expansion in the size of the Armed Forces would predominantly result in an increase to resource spending rather than capital spending. However, the capitalisation of workforce costs directly employed in bringing a capital asset into service is allowed under International Accounting Standards. Further detail on how the Department applies workforce capitalisation can be found in the Annual Report and Accounts, available here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/66aa3e400808eaf43b50db19/Ministry_of_Defence_annual_report_and_accounts_2023_to_2024.pdfThe £2.2 billion uplift to the Ministry of Defence (MOD) budget for 2025-26 will support investment in:· Enhancing the UK's programme of joint exercises with NATO allies to ensure we are ready to respond together to the threats we now face.· Investment in advanced technology such as Directed Energy Weapons, which will revolutionise our Armed Forces' capabilities.· Capitalising on the opportunity presented by the buy-back of the MOD Service Families housing stock, to refurbish the defence estate and provide our military families with the homes they deserve.

Whether her Department's proposed reforms to contributory out of work benefits are expected to reduce contributory benefits as a proportion of overall welfare expenditure.

Our proposed reforms to contributory benefits are about creating a more proactive, pro-work system that actually supports individuals. While the reforms are part of a package that will make the benefits system more affordable, they will also ensure that the system continues to provide for those who need it most, while supporting those who can, back into work. We are consulting on establishing a new, simple and clear “Unemployment Insurance” benefit through the reform of contributory working age benefits and we welcome responses. No final decisions have been taken.

What proportion of new style Employment and Support Allowance claims have been in payment for at least (a) three, (b) six, (c) 12, and (d) 18 months for (i) the Work Related Activity Group and (ii) the Support Group.

The following table shows the volume of new style Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) Work Related Activity Group (WRAG) and Support Group (SG) claims that have been in payment for at least three, six, 12 and 18 months. Volumes of ESA claims that have been in payment for at least three, six, 12 and 18 months In payment for at least:Work-related Activity GroupSupport Group3 months6,000708,0006 months5,000701,00012 months1,000677,00018 months-653,000Source: DWP administrative data for Employment and Support AllowanceVolumes have been rounded to the nearest 1,000.