Written questions by Stride.

What estimate she has made of levels of annually managed expenditure savings due to planned increases in the proportion of face to face (a) PIP and (b) Work Capability Assessments in each of the next five financial years.

The department has not yet made an estimate of the impact on Annually Managed Expenditure of the planned increases in the proportion of face-to-face assessments for PIP and Work Capability Assessments.

What (a) proportion and (b) amount of Universal Credit expenditure was for adults with non-Common Travel Area immigration status in the latest period for which information is available.

Universal Credit awards are paid to households, which may include both British and foreign nationals who are eligible. Therefore, the information requested is not readily available at the required quality and to provide it would incur disproportionate cost.

Whether it has ever been her Department's policy to treat moving into employment as a change of circumstances which triggers a reassessment for (a) personal independence payment and (b) the work capability assessment; and whether her Department has made an estimate of how many claimants may have been subject to reassessment due to a change in circumstances associated with a change in employment status.

Being in work, of itself, is not a change of circumstances for the purposes of triggering an award review of Personal Independence Payment (PIP) or the Work Capability Assessment determination. We are legislating for this approach and believe it is the right approach to give customers the confidence to try work at any time without fear of reassessment and enable more people to move into work. Given that employment status is not linked to reassessment, we are not able estimate how many claimants may have been subject to reassessment due to a change in circumstances associated with a change in employment status.

What proportion of the total caseload for UC LCWRA and ESA Support Group participated in Additional Work Coach Time in the most recent (a) month and (b) financial year for which data is available; and what estimate she has made of what that proportion will be for financial year 2026-27.

Additional Work Coach Support provides disabled people and people with health impairments increased one-to-one personalised support from their work coach to help them move towards, and into, work. Last month, June 2025, 900 LCWRA claimants voluntarily started AWCT support. Since AWCT started in June 2022, there have been over 14,000 LCWRA starts to the programme. There would be, however, a disproportionate cost to providing the number of starts for the financial year 2024/25. There would be a need to retrieve data for a period when AWCT wasn’t targeted at the LCWRA group, and assessments of the accuracy of this data would need to be made. There would also be a disproportionate cost to providing AWCT data on claimants in the ESA Support Group due to difficulties with data collection for this group. The latest publicly available data shows the LCWRA caseload was 1.93 million in March 2025 and the ESA Support Group caseload was 1.23 million in November 2024. However, the AWCT starts figure is cumulative since 2022, so it would be misleading to give AWCT starts as a percentage of the total current caseload. We will be rolling out our new support offer from next April (2026) when our benefit changes start to come in so that everyone affected by the reduction to the UC health element will be offered support, provided by a dedicated Pathways to Work adviser. These 1000 Pathways to Work Advisers will build and expand on existing measures like additional work coach support to provide one-to-one personalised support to more disabled customers and those with health conditions to help them move towards, and into, work. Pathways to Work Advisers will support claimants on Universal Credit (UC) who are awaiting their Work Capability Assessment and those who have been found to have ‘limited capability for work’ or ‘limited capability for work and work-related activity’ who want, or could benefit from, more help to move into work. They can also support Employment Support Allowance (ESA) claimants. People affected will be able to access a conversation about their needs, goals and aspirations; offered one-to-one follow-on support, and given help to access additional work, health and skills support that can meet their needs. This will include:Access to specialist local Supported Employment provision across England and Wales for individuals that are disabled, have health conditions or other complex barriers to employment through Connect to Work, which in 2026/27 will support around 100,000 people.Support through local Trailblazers and the WorkWell initiative, which will be available in around half of England and parts of Wales. In other areas, we will work to draw on health, skills and wider services and to put in place additional provision where this is needed.Pathways to Work adviser support will be in place across England, Scotland and Wales for all those affected by the changes from April. We will be working with governments in Scotland and Wales to join up support where elements of policy and funding are devolved. We are beginning testing of our new support conversation this year (summer 2025). There will be additional funding of £200 million to support people next year (2026/27), building to £1 billion a year by 2029/30 as reforms fully roll out.__________________________________________________________________________

What estimate she has made of the cost to the public purse of (a) welfare payments and (b) other services paid to people with indefinite leave to remain in each financial year since 2019-20 onwards.

The information requested is not readily available and to provide it would incur disproportionate cost.

With reference to her Oral Statement of 30 October 2024 on Financial Statement and Budget Report, Official Report, column 821, whether it remains her policy not to extend the freeze on income tax thresholds.

The Government is committed to keeping taxes for working people as low as possible while ensuring fiscal responsibility. That is why, at our first Budget, we decided not to extend the freeze on personal tax thresholds.

Whether it remains her Department's policy to spend an additional £1 billion on employment support for people with health conditions and disabilities by 2029-30 relative to pre-Spring Statement plans, following the changes to the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payments Bill; how the further £300 million of funded announced on 30 June 2025 is to be allocated across financial years; and what the total planned spending on employment support for people with health conditions and disabilities was in each financial year to 2029-30 (a) before the Spring Statement and (b) as of 2 July 2025.

We will spend an additional £1 billion on employment support for people with health conditions and disabilities by 2029-2030 relative to pre-Spring Statement plans, with no impact following changes made to the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payments Bill. Further details were given by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions’ statement on Welfare Reform given on 30 June.

What the award rate for Work Capability Assessment was (a) in-person, (b) not in-person and (c) across all modes in each of the last 10 years; and whether her Department has made a comparative assessment of award rates for (i) in-person assessments and (ii) other modes of assessment.

The information requested on decisions is not collated centrally and could only be provided at disproportionate cost. However, relevant available information on health professional recommendations has been provided in response to a previous Parliamentary Question:https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2025-02-13/31637The Health Assessment Channels Trial, conducted by the department between May 2022 and March 2023, compared the monetary impact of each Work Capability Assessment channel, focussing on initial claimants eligible for all channels (in-person, telephone or video). The trial found that the proportion of claimants awarded the health element after being allocated an in-person assessment did not differ considerably from the proportion awarded after being allocated a remote channel. We are working on publishing the full results of the trial in due course.

Whether her Department has made a comparative assessment of award rates for (a) in-person and (b) other modes of PIP assessment.

The Health Assessment Channels Trial, conducted by the department between May 2022 and March 2023, compared the monetary impact of each PIP assessment channel, focussing on initial claimants eligible for all channels (in-person, telephone or video). The trial found that the award rates of PIP claimants allocated an in-person assessment did not differ considerably from the proportion of claimants awarded PIP after being allocated a remote channel. We are working on publishing the full results of the trial in due course.As part of the Functional Assessment Service (FAS) process, a paper-based assessment is always considered first. Where a paper-based review is not possible the claimant will be invited to an assessment.Before sending an invitation, the assessment supplier considers whether a specific assessment channel is needed due to the claimant’s health or circumstances. Otherwise, claimants are offered the next available appointment, which can be changed if the claimant informs us that a reasonable adjustment is appropriate in their circumstances.While suppliers recommend awards, the final decisions are made by case managers who may alter these recommendations.We have also announced a wider review of the PIP assessment to make it fair and fit for purpose, which I am leading. We are bringing together a range of experts, stakeholders and people with lived experience to consider how best to do this. We will provide further details as plans progress. The review is expected to conclude in autumn 2026.

With reference to her Oral Statement of 30 June 2025 on Welfare Reform, columns 23-25, whether (a) the cost of changes to her welfare reform proposals include the cost of the new severe conditions group, (b) how many people are expected to qualify for that group in each financial year up to and including 2029-30 and (c) what estimate she has made of the additional cost to the exchequer for the creation of that group relative to the spending forecasts produced at Spring Statement 2025.

We published Impact Assessments alongside this Bill in the usual way. These set out who will be impacted, the financial implications of the changes and equality analysis.To account for the proposed changes to the Bill, the Impact Assessment will be revised and republished. We will provide and update an Impact Assessment to support Commons Committee, as is the usual process when a Bill is amended at this stage.

With reference to her Oral Statement of 30 June 2025 on Welfare Reform, columns 23-25, what the evidential basis was for her statement that less that 1% of people on universal credit move into work each month.

The statistics referred to in that statement related to those on Universal Credit in the Limited Capability for Work and Work-Related Activity Group. Statistics on the Into Work Rates of Claimants on the Universal Credit Health Journey by month can be found in table T1.14 in Chapter 1 of the Pathway to Work Evidence Packchapter-1-case-for-change-evidence.ods

How many and what proportion of people impacted by the changes to PIP proposed in the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill she estimates will (a) lose eligibility to PIP entirely, (b) be eligible for the UC health element under the current system and (c) be eligible for the UC health element under her Department’s proposals to replace the Work Capability Assessment with the PIP passporting mechanism.

The Pathways to Work Green Paper set out the Government’s intention to abolish the Work Capability Assessment (WCA). This reform will move away from categorising individuals into binary groups of ‘can work’ or ‘can’t work’. Instead, eligibility for additional financial support in Universal Credit (UC) due to health conditions will be determined through a single assessment - the Personal Independence Payment (PIP) assessment - focused on the impact of disability on daily living, rather than on capacity to work. This change will decouple entitlement to the UC health element from employment status, giving people confidence that taking steps towards or into work will not put their benefit entitlement at risk. Any changes to PIP eligibility will follow a comprehensive review of the benefit, which I am leading. This review is being co-produced with disabled people, representative organisations, clinicians, experts, MPs, and other stakeholders to ensure a wide range of voices are heard. Its aim is to ensure the PIP assessment is fair, robust, and fit for the future and the review is expected to conclude in autumn 2026. As the review is ongoing, the Department has not yet developed estimates of how many people will (a) lose eligibility to PIP, (b) be eligible for the UC health element under the current system, or (c) be eligible under the proposed PIP-based system. These figures will be made available in due course, alongside supporting analysis.

What estimate she has made of the potential impact of the G7 agreement on global minimum tax on additional revenue to the public purse in each of the next five financial years.

The Chancellor, alongside her G7 counterparts, has reached an understanding on a proposed path forward for the global minimum tax, Pillar 2 of the G20/OECD Inclusive Framework project on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS). The G7 published a statement last week that set out our commitment to the core objectives of Pillar 2: tackling multinational tax avoidance and promoting a stable global tax environment that supports fair competition. Recent discussions have taken into account concerns raised by the US Treasury regarding the interaction of the Pillar 2 rules with the US minimum tax system, and have focused on developing a side-by-side approach that maintains a level playing field. Importantly, this agreement includes the removal of the retaliatory tax provision (Section 899) in the US’s legislative proposals, which would have imposed a significant additional tax burden on British businesses. The understanding reached by the G7, and the principles underpinning it, will now be developed in detail and need to be agreed within the wider OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework, which comprises over 140 countries and jurisdictions. Any changes to UK policy resulting from the final, negotiated solution, will be fully costed by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

With reference to paragraph 5.74 of the Spending Review 2025, published on 11 June 2025, whether the 3.1% annual growth figure for local authority spending power assumes all councils increase core council tax by 3% each year and all councils apply the full 2% adult social care precept increase as well; what the annual average real terms increase in grant funding will be between 2023-24 and 2028-29; and what the annual average real terms increase in grant funding will be between 2025-26 and 2028-29.

Table 5.17 of the Spending Review 2025 document refers to an estimated average annual real-terms growth rate for Local Authority (LA) Core Spending Power of 3.1% per year from 2023-24 to 2028-29. The approach to council tax within these estimates is in line with standard practice for LA Core Spending Power figures published by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/explanatory-note-on-core-spending-power-final-local-government-finance-settlement-2025-to-2026/explanatory-note-on-core-spending-power-final-local-government-finance-settlement-2025-to-2026. As also set out in Table 5.17, the estimated average annual real terms increase in grant funding between 2023-24 and 2028-29 for the Local Government Departmental Expenditure Limit (DEL) budget will be 5.2%. Between 2025-26 and 2028-29, it will be 1.1%.

With reference to Table 5.8 of the Spending Review, published on 11 June 2025, (a) what analysis informed the estimates for increases in police core spending power and (b) what increases in police council tax precepts were assumed, set out in (i) annual percentage increase terms, (ii) cash terms and (iii) real terms.

Police core spending power refers to the projected total police settlement funding for Counter Terrorism Police and Territorial Police. The Phase 2 settlement provides an average 1.7% real terms increase per year in police spending power. Over the SR period, police spending power is projected to increase by an average 2.3% per year in real terms. The average real terms increase to police core spending power over the SR period was calculated based on the GDP deflator as of Spring Statement 2025. Police core spending power includes projected spending from additional income, including estimated funding from the police council tax precept. However, this remains subject to final decision on precept levels and individual police and crime commissioner decisions. The final police precept level and core government funding will be set out in the annual police funding settlement in the usual way.

With reference to paragraph 2.20 of the Spending Review 2025, published on 11 June 2025, if she will provide a breakdown of the £1 billion estimated savings from spending on the asylum system by (a) area of spend, (b) capital vs resource spending and (c) each financial year up to and including 2028-29.

This government inherited an unaffordable and unsustainable asylum pressure, which is why this government has taken action to reduce asylum costs. The Home Secretary’s robust reforms, including investment in the new Border Security Command, are aimed at reducing small boat arrivals, reducing the asylum and appeals backlog and returning those without the right to be here. This will address the underlying causes of high asylum costs by enabling asylum hotel exits and see asylum support costs fall by at least £1 billion a year by 2028-29 compared to 2024-25 spending.

With reference to Table 5.8 of the Spending Review document published on 11 June 2025, what the annual real terms increases in central government funding for policing will be in each financial year up to and including 2028-29; and what the average real terms annual increase will be across the spending review period.

The Phase 2 settlement provides an average 1.7% real terms increase per year in police spending power. Over the SR period, police spending power is projected to increase by an average 2.3% per year in real terms. This reflects estimated funding through a mix of central government funding and precept income via precept funding. The final police precept level and core government funding will be set out in the annual police funding settlement in the usual way.

With reference to box 4.A of the Spending Review 2025, published on 11 June 2025, how much of the financial transactions set out in the document are additional to the quantum which was assumed at Autumn Budget 2024; and what estimate her Department has made of the potential impact of this additional activity on (a) public sector net cash requirement, (b) public sector net debt, (c) public sector net debt excluding Bank of England, (d) central government debt interest spending and (e) overall gilt issuance for each financial year up to and including 2029-30, compared to the forecasts published at Spring Statement 2025.

At the Budget last Autumn, the government set out a clear fiscal strategy to stabilise the public finances and underpin growth. This involved introducing new fiscal rules which provide stability, put the public finances on a sustainable path and ensure our public services are sustainably funded. The fiscal rules set in the Autumn have supported the step change needed in investment, kick starting a decade of national renewal. For the first time, the fiscal rules recognise where financial assets generate future returns. At SR25, the government allocated an additional £9.6 billion in financial transactions to good value-for-money investment opportunities identified through the Spending Review process, subject to the robust guardrails set out in the financial transaction control framework. The Treasury does not publish forecasts of the economy or public finances; the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the UK’s official forecaster and provides independent analysis of the UK’s public finances. In its March forecast, the OBR confirmed that the government is on track to meet its fiscal rules, thanks to decisive action taken by the government to put the public finances on a sustainable trajectory and grow the economy. The OBR will publish an updated forecast later this year in the usual way.

If she will make a comparative assessment of the outturn and forecast data for public sector net (a) borrowing, (b) debt, excluding Bank of England debt, and (c) financial liabilities for each financial year from 2024-25 until 2029-30 (i) before and (ii) after 29 July 2024.

The information requested is publicly available. Forecast data is published on the OBR’s website https://obr.uk/publications/. Outturn public finances data is published on the ONS website https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance. At Autumn Budget 2024, the government put the public finances on a sustainable path by strengthening the fiscal framework, including announcing new fiscal rules, and taking difficult decisions on tax, welfare and spending. In March 2025, the Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed that the government is on track to meet its fiscal rules.

For what reason her Department did not make an assessment of the potential impact of the proposed Double Contribution Convention with India on the public purse before agreeing to it.

The OBR will certify the impact of the trade deal including the Double Contributions Convention in the usual way at a fiscal event, once the deal is finalised and ratified. The agreement to negotiate a Double Contributions Convention was made in the context of the wider deal, which will bring billions into the economy.