Written questions by Robertson.

What estimate her department has made of how many a) pubs b) hotels c) restaurants d) indoor leisure and e) night clubs are expected to see their business rates bill i) go up ii) stay the same or iii) decrease from April 2026 as a result of the measures announced in Budget 2025.

The amount of business rates paid on each property is based on the rateable value of the property, assessed by the Valuation Office Agency (VOA), and the multiplier values, which are set by the Government. Rateable values are re-assessed every three years. Revaluations ensure that the rateable values of properties (i.e. the tax base) remain in line with market changes, and that the tax rates adjust to reflect changes in the tax base. At the Budget, the VOA announced updated property values from the 2026 revaluation. This revaluation is the first since Covid, which has led to significant increases in rateable values for some properties, including those in the hospitality and leisure sectors as they recover from the pandemic. To support with bill increases, at the Budget, the Government announced a support package worth £4.3 billion over the next three years, including protection for ratepayers seeing their bills increase because of the revaluation. As a result, over half of ratepayers will see no bill increases, including 23% seeing their bills go down. This means most properties seeing increases will see them capped at 15% or less next year, or £800 for the smallest. For the pubs sector, the increase in rateable values will be 30%, which combined with the loss of the temporary RHL relief would lead to an increase in total bills paid by the sector of 45%. However, due to government intervention, the sector’s total bill will only increase by 4% next year. More broadly, the Government is delivering a long overdue reform to rebalance the business rates system and support the high street, as promised in our manifesto. The Government is doing this by introducing new permanently lower tax rates for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure (RHL) properties, including pubs. These new tax rates are worth nearly £900 million per year, and will benefit over 750,000 properties. The new RHL tax rates replace the temporary RHL relief that has been winding down since Covid. Unlike RHL relief, the new rates are permanent, giving businesses certainty and stability, and there will be no cap, meaning all qualifying properties on high streets across England will benefit.

What assessment her Department has made of the potential impact of rateable value increases and changes to business rates relief announced at Budget 2025 on a) vacancy rates on high streets, b) employment levels, c) businesses closures and d) price levels.

The amount of business rates paid on each property is based on the rateable value of the property, assessed by the Valuation Office Agency (VOA), and the multiplier values, which are set by the Government. Rateable values are re-assessed every three years. Revaluations ensure that the rateable values of properties (i.e. the tax base) remain in line with market changes, and that the tax rates adjust to reflect changes in the tax base. At the Budget, the VOA announced updated property values from the 2026 revaluation. This revaluation is the first since Covid, which has led to significant increases in rateable values for some properties as they recover from the pandemic. To support with bill increases, at the Budget, the Government announced a support package worth £4.3 billion over the next three years, including protection for ratepayers seeing their bills increase because of the revaluation. As a result, over half of ratepayers will see no bill increases, including 23% seeing their bills go down. This means most properties seeing increases will see them capped at 15% or less next year, or £800 for the smallest. More broadly, the Government is delivering a long overdue reform to rebalance the business rates system and support the high street, as promised in our manifesto. The Government is doing this by introducing new permanently lower tax rates for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure (RHL) properties, including pubs. These new tax rates are worth nearly £900 million per year, and will benefit over 750,000 properties. The new RHL tax rates replace the temporary RHL relief that has been winding down since Covid. Unlike RHL relief, the new rates are permanent, giving businesses certainty and stability, and there will be no cap, meaning all qualifying properties on high streets across England will benefit. The Call for Evidence published at Budget seeks further evidence on the role business rates and reliefs play in investment, including Empty Property Relief.

What assessment her Department has made of the potential impact of the removal of business rates relief and the business rates revaluation on high street businesses.

The amount of business rates paid on each property is based on the rateable value of the property, assessed by the Valuation Office Agency (VOA), and the multiplier values, which are set by the Government. Rateable values are re-assessed every three years. Revaluations ensure that the rateable values of properties (i.e. the tax base) remain in line with market changes, and that the tax rates adjust to reflect changes in the tax base. At the Budget, the VOA announced updated property values from the 2026 revaluation. This revaluation is the first since Covid, which has led to significant increases in rateable values for some properties as they recover from the pandemic. To support with bill increases, at the Budget, the Government announced a support package worth £4.3 billion over the next three years, including protection for ratepayers seeing their bills increase because of the revaluation. As a result, over half of ratepayers will see no bill increases, including 23% seeing their bills go down. This means most properties seeing increases will see them capped at 15% or less next year, or £800 for the smallest. More broadly, the Government is delivering a long overdue reform to rebalance the business rates system and support the high street, as promised in our manifesto. The Government is doing this by introducing new permanently lower tax rates for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure (RHL) properties, including pubs. These new tax rates are worth nearly £900 million per year, and will benefit over 750,000 properties. The new RHL tax rates replace the temporary RHL relief that has been winding down since Covid. Unlike RHL relief, the new rates are permanent, giving businesses certainty and stability, and there will be no cap, meaning all qualifying properties on high streets across England will benefit.

What assessment she has made of the potential impact of increases in spirit duty on trends in levels of pub closures.

Alcohol duty is paid by producers, and is therefore not typically paid directly by pubs. Further, according to estimates derived from sales data collected on behalf of the Office for National Statistics, only around 15% of spirits are consumed on-trade. At Autumn Budget 2025 the Chancellor confirmed that alcohol duty will be uprated on 1 February 2026 to maintain its current real-terms value. Using HMRC’s published ready reckoner, freezing alcohol duty rates when inflation is 3.66% would cost the Exchequer around £400m a year. This ready reckoner can be found here: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/direct-effects-of-illustrative-tax-changes/direct-effects-of-illustrative-tax-changes-bulletin-january-2025#change-in-various-duties.

What assessment she has made of the potential impact of higher rateable values and reduced business rates relief on the number of hospitality closures and empty units on high streets over the next three years.

The amount of business rates paid on each property is based on the rateable value of the property, assessed by the Valuation Office Agency (VOA), and the multiplier values, which are set by the Government. Rateable values are re-assessed every three years. Revaluations ensure that the rateable values of properties (i.e. the tax base) remain in line with market changes, and that the tax rates adjust to reflect changes in the tax base. At the Budget, the VOA announced updated property values from the 2026 revaluation. This revaluation is the first since Covid, which has led to significant increases in rateable values for some properties as they recover from the pandemic. To support with bill increases, at the Budget, the Government announced a support package worth £4.3 billion over the next three years, including protection for ratepayers seeing their bills increase because of the revaluation. As a result, over half of ratepayers will see no bill increases, including 23% seeing their bills go down. This means most properties seeing increases will see them capped at 15% or less next year, or £800 for the smallest. Without our support, the pub sector as a whole would have faced a 45% increase in the total bills they pay next year. Because of the support we’ve put in place, this has fallen to just 4%. More broadly, the Government is delivering a long overdue reform to rebalance the business rates system and support the high street, as promised in our manifesto. We are doing this by introducing new permanently lower tax rates for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure (RHL) properties. These new tax rates are worth nearly £900 million per year, and will benefit over 750,000 properties, including those on the high street. The new RHL tax rates replace the temporary RHL relief that has been winding down since Covid. Unlike RHL relief, the new rates are permanent, giving businesses certainty and stability, and there will be no cap, meaning all qualifying properties on high streets across England will benefit. The National Insurance Contributions (NICs) Employment Allowance has been more than doubled to £10,500, ensuring that over half of businesses with National Insurance liabilities, including those in the hospitality sector, will either gain or see no change this year. A Tax Information and Impact Note was published alongside changes to employer NICs.

What assessment she has made of the potential impact on families of increases in Air Passenger Duty for Premium Economy passengers announced in the Budget.

The government is committed to securing the long-term future of the aviation sector in the UK and recognises the benefits of the connectivity it creates between the UK and the rest of the world.At Budget 2025, the government announced it will uprate APD rates in line with RPI from 1 April 2027 and rounded to the nearest penny. This constitutes a real terms freeze meaning passengers will pay the same in today’s prices. As set out in the OBR forecast in March, passenger numbers are expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels in the coming year, and are expected to be around 10% higher than 2024-25 once new APD rates are implemented in 2026-27.

What assessment she has made of the potential impact of increased aviation taxes on levels of inbound tourism to the UK.

The government is committed to securing the long-term future of the aviation sector in the UK and recognises the benefits of the connectivity it creates between the UK and the rest of the world.At Budget 2025, the government announced it will uprate APD rates in line with RPI from 1 April 2027 and rounded to the nearest penny. This constitutes a real terms freeze meaning passengers will pay the same in today’s prices. As set out in the OBR forecast in March, passenger numbers are expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels in the coming year, and are expected to be around 10% higher than 2024-25 once new APD rates are implemented in 2026-27.

What estimate she has made of the revenues generated from the ending of free allowances under the UK Emissions Trading Scheme for aviation; and whether she plans to allocate those revenues to support the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel.

The UK ETS Authority announced in July 2023 that free allocation would end for the Aviation sector in 2026, after considering stakeholder feedback which largely supported the finding that removing aviation free allocation did not pose a significant risk to carbon leakage. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility is responsible for forecasting receipts from the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), and has published its methodology for forecasting ETS receipts on its website. Receipts from the UK ETS accrue to the consolidated fund, and go to funding government priorities, which includes decarbonisation support for the aviation sector. The UK Government is supporting the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) industry by building demand through the SAF Mandate, supporting first-of-a-kind SAF production plants through the Advanced Fuels Fund, and derisking SAF projects by introducing legislation for the Revenue Certainty Mechanism. In 2025, the government announced £400,000 to get new fuels to market quicker, delivering on the UK’s clean energy ambitions and powering up economic growth as part of the Plan for Change.

What recent representations she has received from airport operators regarding the potential impact of business rates changes announced in the Budget on the competitiveness of UK airports.

The government is committed to enabling investment so that airports can play their full role in the growth mission. HM Treasury received budget submissions from several airports and AirportsUK. Both Ministers and officials have met with the sector and corresponded throughout the year on the impact of changes to rateable values as a result of the 2026 revaluation. Properties seeing large bill increases as a result of the business rates revaluation - including airports - will benefit from a redesigned transitional relief scheme worth £3.2 billion over the next 3 years. At Budget 2025, the government also published a Call for Evidence on Business Rates and Investment. It will explore the concerns that airports and a small number of other ratepayers have raised around the ‘Receipts & Expenditure’ valuation methodology and its impacts on long-term, high value investments. The government is seeking to address issues raised ahead of the 2029 revaluation, aiming to conclude this work in sufficient time before pre-list discussion commences.

What assessment she has made of the potential impact of spirits duty on the viability of pub in coastal communities.

Alcohol duty is paid by producers, and is therefore not typically paid directly by pubs. Further, according to estimates derived from sales data collected on behalf of the Office for National Statistics, only around 15% of spirits are consumed on-trade. At Autumn Budget 2025 the Chancellor confirmed that alcohol duty will be uprated on 1 February 2026 to main its current real-terms value. The government does not expect this to have any significant impact on competition between the on and off trades.

What assessment she has made of the potential impact of RPI-linked duty increases on consumer prices for spirits in pubs versus supermarkets.

Alcohol duty is paid by producers, and is therefore not typically paid directly by pubs. Further, according to estimates derived from sales data collected on behalf of the Office for National Statistics, only around 15% of spirits are consumed on-trade. At Autumn Budget 2025 the Chancellor confirmed that alcohol duty will be uprated on 1 February 2026 to main its current real-terms value. The government does not expect this to have any significant impact on competition between the on and off trades.

If she will conduct a review of the potential impact of spirits duty policy on the on-trade sector.

At Autumn Budget 2025 the Chancellor confirmed that alcohol duty will be uprated on 1 February 2026 to main its current real-terms value. The government does not expect this to have any significant impact to GDP, nor competition between the on and off trades. Following a detailed review between 2020 and 2023, a new duty system was introduced in August 2023. Information about this review and its outcomes are available here:www.gov.uk/government/consultations/the-new-alcohol-duty-system-consultation The Government plans to evaluate the 2023 alcohol duty reforms in late-2026, in line with our commitment to do so three years after they took effect.

Whether her Department has made an assessment of the potential impact of spirits duty on the ability of pubs to compete with off-trade retailers.

At Autumn Budget 2025 the Chancellor confirmed that alcohol duty will be uprated on 1 February 2026 to main its current real-terms value. The government does not expect this to have any significant impact to GDP, nor competition between the on and off trades. Following a detailed review between 2020 and 2023, a new duty system was introduced in August 2023. Information about this review and its outcomes are available here:www.gov.uk/government/consultations/the-new-alcohol-duty-system-consultation The Government plans to evaluate the 2023 alcohol duty reforms in late-2026, in line with our commitment to do so three years after they took effect.

What assessment she has made of the contribution of on-trade sale of UK spirits to GDP.

At Autumn Budget 2025 the Chancellor confirmed that alcohol duty will be uprated on 1 February 2026 to main its current real-terms value. The government does not expect this to have any significant impact to GDP, nor competition between the on and off trades. Following a detailed review between 2020 and 2023, a new duty system was introduced in August 2023. Information about this review and its outcomes are available here:www.gov.uk/government/consultations/the-new-alcohol-duty-system-consultation The Government plans to evaluate the 2023 alcohol duty reforms in late-2026, in line with our commitment to do so three years after they took effect.

What assessment her Department has made on the potential impact of a complete spirits duty freeze for the on-trade on revenue.

Alcohol duty is paid at the point of production or import, before it is diverted to either the on-trade or the off-trade. It is therefore not possible to freeze duty rates exclusively for the on-trade. HMRC’s latest published estimate on the effect of a 1% change in spirits duties on tax receipts can be found here: Direct effects of illustrative tax changes bulletin (June 2025) - GOV.UK.

Whether the UK delegation attending the fourth Meeting of Parties to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control plans to (a) oppose the extension of the scope of application of the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products beyond tobacco products to electronic nicotine delivery services and (b) help ensure that proposed amendments of the Treaty follow the proper procedures.

The procedures for amending the World Health Organization Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products are laid down in Articles 38 and 39 of that treaty. These stipulate that any proposals need to be communicated to parties at least six months before the session at which they are proposed to be adopted.As no such communication has been made in this case, if any proposals for extending the Treaty to electronic nicotine delivery services were to emerge, they would need to be considered at a future Meeting of Parties (MOP) rather than this MOP. The UK would always seek to ensure that any proposals to amend the Treaty follow the proper procedures.

What assessment she has made on the potential impact of reduced pharmaceutical investment on the economy.

The Government monitors a wide range of indicators to assess the UK’s economic performance. Official economic forecasts and assessments of policy impacts are set out in the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) Economic and Fiscal Outlook documents, the most recent of which was published in March 2025. The next publication will be in November 2025, providing further assessment of the UK’s economic performance. The Government recognises the pharmaceutical industry’s vital contribution to the UK economy through creating high-value jobs, driving innovation, and improving public health through access to effective treatments.

What assessment her Department has made of the potential impact of the Extended Producer Responsibility scheme on food price inflation.

HM Treasury does not produce forecasts of the UK economy. Forecasting the economy, including the impact of Government policy decisions, is the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The OBR does not publish estimates of the impact of policy decisions, including the Extended Producer Responsibility, (EPR) on levels of food inflation. There is an impact assessment of the EPR system published, where the system’s impact on inflation can be found. It estimates the impact on headline CPI at around 0.07% and does not provide a separate estimate for food inflation The Bank of England’s August Monetary Policy Report notes that, under full pass-through of costs, packaging EPR would raise the level of food prices by a little over 0.5%.

What comparative assessment she has made of the total effective tax payable by (a) the hospitality sector and (b) other sectors.

HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) has not performed a comparative analysis of the total effective tax payable from the hospitality sector and other sectors.

What assessment she has made of the impact of changes to the employer National Insurance contributions on employment levels in the hospitality sector.

The Government has set out the impacts of the policy changes from Autumn Budget 2024 in the usual way. A Tax Information and Impact Note (TIIN) was published alongside the introduction of the Bill containing the changes to employer NICs. The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer, the economic impacts of the policy, and the impacts on individuals, businesses, and civil society organisations, as well as an overview of the equality impacts.With all policies considered, this forecasts the employment level to increase from 33.6 million in 2024 to 34.8 million in 2029. The Office for Budget Responsibility published its most recent Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) in March 2025, which sets out a detailed forecast of the economy and public finances. The Government decided to protect the smallest businesses from the changes to employer NICs by increasing the Employment Allowance from £5,000 to £10,500. This means that this year, 865,000 employers will pay no NICs at all, and more than half of all employers will either gain or will see no change.