Employer National Insurance: a Budget two weeks away
Just before the 2024 Budget, Treasury ministers wouldn’t say whether National Insurance would rise. Two weeks later it did. It looks evasive — but this is one the charge doesn’t stick to.
from the first question to the answer
16 written questions · 11 MPs pressing · routine pre-Budget convention
16 October 2024 → 30 October 2024
Will employer National Insurance rise?
Employer National Insurance raised from 13.8% to 15%, announced at the Budget.
The pressure
National Insurance was barely raised until the Budget loomed. Once it did, ministers gave the standard “not outside a fiscal event” answer for a fortnight — then announced it where tax changes belong.
40,577 signed “Exempt all social care providers from the employer NIC increase” ↗ · government responded 4 December 2024
How it played out
The manifesto pledge
Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledges not to raise National Insurance — without distinguishing employer from employee contributions.
The government does not speculate on tax changes outside of fiscal events. Where changes are made, information about impacts is published in the usual way.
The standard pre-Budget line — not a denial of a plan, a refusal to pre-empt the Budget.
Read the full exchange →We do not comment on speculation around hypothetical situations. Any decisions… will be announced at fiscal events, including the Spending Review.
A different minister, the same proper refusal to pre-announce the Budget.
Read the full exchange →The Budget
Employer National Insurance is raised from 13.8% to 15% and the threshold cut, from April 2025 — announced openly at the fiscal event.
HM Treasury, Autumn Budget 2024The Chancellor made an announcement at the Autumn Budget setting out that the rate of Employer National Insurance Contributions will increase from 13.8% to 15% from 6 April 2025.
Set out openly at the Budget — exactly where it belonged.
Read the full exchange →What the silence cost
The non-answer lasted about two weeks — the interval before a pre-announced Budget, during which governments routinely decline to confirm tax measures.
Was the silence justified?
Reticence before a decision is normal. The question is how much, for how long, and at what cost.
Not pre-announcing tax changes outside a fiscal event is a long-standing convention that stops markets and employers front-running the Budget. A fortnight’s reticence is that convention working.
There is little to see here as a withholding story: the latency is days, not months, and the measure was announced openly at the first fiscal event. The contrast with the cases above is the point.
The separate, contested question — whether the rise broke the manifesto’s “working people” pledge — is a debate about a promise, not about how long an answer was withheld.
Ministers named: James Murray · Karin Smyth
Quotes are verbatim written answers in Beyond the Vote’s records of UK Parliament written questions. Tap any quote to read the full exchange.