Speeches by Yang.

“Chancellor, you mentioned the proposed changes to settlement criteria and settlement periods. What modelling has the Treasury done of these proposed changes? Do you think they will impact the fiscal stance significantly?”

“But have you made independent assessments of the proposed changes to settlement policy?”

“How will the impact of that spending be spread among other departmental budgets? Will it be general or equally spread? How will it be distributed?”

“Thank you. We have seen those pressures from parents in our own constituencies as well—definitely.”

“Turning to the other side of spending—taxation—you have taken measures to narrow the gap between the ways in which wealth is taxed and work is taxed, such as at the last Budget. Looking over the remainder of this Parliament, do you think there is more to be done on narrowing that gap?”

“I thank the Chancellor for her strong statement and, in particular, for her words on deepening our alliances with our European partners. This is crucial for bringing down the cost of food and for healing the economic self-harm done by the Conservatives. The Bank of England has said that her cuts to energy bills will he…”

“Secondary school students with special educational needs have told me of their struggles with academy trusts in south Reading and Shinfield that have failed to properly prioritise inclusion. Will the Minister set out how the schools White Paper will address that on the part of multi-academy trusts? Will she consider vi…”

“2. What recent assessment she has made of the effectiveness of the system for supporting children with special educational needs and disabilities.”

“Sure, but in those cases you are still relying on HMRC and DWP experts and so on to input into your forecasting. There is still that shared task.”

“Sir Robert, you made a comparison between the friction introduced by models like the Netherlands model and models in other countries where the equivalent of the OBR only scrutinises and checks the Treasury forecast. That comparison is really interesting, because the Netherlands has about three or four times the staff t…”

“Your heart must have sunk many times.”

“I appreciate that you both said, in response to Mr Glen’s question about the framework, that as technocrats you operate within the framework set by Government, but neither of you currently runs the OBR and neither of you is bound by civil service impartiality. You are free to have political opinions before this Committ…”

“It is about the 10-year horizon. Sir Robert, you mentioned that one of your Chancellors considered asking you to make this change, but the political concern was that they would have to reveal their policy preferences over 10 years. Given that the OBR has a 50-year projection, which involves keeping the current policy d…”

“Can I push further on Mr Glen’s point?”

“Sir Robert, you have mentioned that the underprediction of borrowing and the overconfidence in departmental spending limits being stuck to is a feature of the system, not a bug. But do you not think that there is a role for more scenario planning, so that the OBR is able to produce credible forecasts of departmental sp…”

“That sounds as if the OBR was created to solve a problem that did not really exist in the 2000s, because, as you say, those forecasts were so stable and credible.”

“But overall, does that mean that when assessing a five-year forecast period in the 15 years of the OBR, compared with, say, the previous 15 years of Treasury forecasts, the OBR forecasts have been more inaccurate at the end of that five-year period, compared with the Treasury previously?”

“Over the first three years of the forecast, you would be more accurate than the Treasury was previously. But over year four and year five, at the end of the forecast period, you would be less accurate than the Treasury was previously. Some of that is structural, as you said, and about the changing era that you were in.”

“But that reduces over the longer period. You are better in the first three years, and then you are similar to the Treasury over a longer period.”

“This is a question either to Sir Robert or to Mr Hughes. One of the initial intentions for the OBR was to produce more accurate and credible forecasts independently than would be produced under the Treasury. Looking back over the 15 years since its creation, has that happened?”