Written questions by Stride.

How many and what proportion of businesses currently eligible for retail, hospitality and leisure relief have a normal business rates liability of £110,000 or less.

Eligible retail, hospitality and leisure (RHL) properties benefit from 40 per cent business rates relief up to a cash cap of £110,000 per business in 2025/26. MHCLG publish data on the number of properties benefitting from RHL relief. As business rates are administered by individual Local Authorities on a per-property basis, the Government does not hold data on how many and what proportion of businesses currently eligible for RHL relief have a total business rates liability of £110,000 or less. In April 2026, the Government is introducing permanently lower business rates multipliers for RHL properties with rateable values below £500,000. Unlike the current RHL business rates relief, there will be no cash cap, meaning that all eligible RHL properties in a chain will qualify for the lower multipliers.

What estimate she has made of the cost to the public purse of (a) welfare payments and (b) other services paid to people with indefinite leave to remain in each financial year since 2019-20 onwards.

The information requested is not readily available and to provide it would incur disproportionate cost.

With reference to her Oral Statement of 30 October 2024 on Financial Statement and Budget Report, Official Report, column 821, whether it remains her policy not to extend the freeze on income tax thresholds.

The Government is committed to keeping taxes for working people as low as possible while ensuring fiscal responsibility. That is why, at our first Budget, we decided not to extend the freeze on personal tax thresholds.

What estimate she has made of the potential impact of the G7 agreement on global minimum tax on additional revenue to the public purse in each of the next five financial years.

The Chancellor, alongside her G7 counterparts, has reached an understanding on a proposed path forward for the global minimum tax, Pillar 2 of the G20/OECD Inclusive Framework project on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS). The G7 published a statement last week that set out our commitment to the core objectives of Pillar 2: tackling multinational tax avoidance and promoting a stable global tax environment that supports fair competition. Recent discussions have taken into account concerns raised by the US Treasury regarding the interaction of the Pillar 2 rules with the US minimum tax system, and have focused on developing a side-by-side approach that maintains a level playing field. Importantly, this agreement includes the removal of the retaliatory tax provision (Section 899) in the US’s legislative proposals, which would have imposed a significant additional tax burden on British businesses. The understanding reached by the G7, and the principles underpinning it, will now be developed in detail and need to be agreed within the wider OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework, which comprises over 140 countries and jurisdictions. Any changes to UK policy resulting from the final, negotiated solution, will be fully costed by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

With reference to Table 5.8 of the Spending Review document published on 11 June 2025, what the annual real terms increases in central government funding for policing will be in each financial year up to and including 2028-29; and what the average real terms annual increase will be across the spending review period.

The Phase 2 settlement provides an average 1.7% real terms increase per year in police spending power. Over the SR period, police spending power is projected to increase by an average 2.3% per year in real terms. This reflects estimated funding through a mix of central government funding and precept income via precept funding. The final police precept level and core government funding will be set out in the annual police funding settlement in the usual way.

With reference to paragraph 5.74 of the Spending Review 2025, published on 11 June 2025, whether the 3.1% annual growth figure for local authority spending power assumes all councils increase core council tax by 3% each year and all councils apply the full 2% adult social care precept increase as well; what the annual average real terms increase in grant funding will be between 2023-24 and 2028-29; and what the annual average real terms increase in grant funding will be between 2025-26 and 2028-29.

Table 5.17 of the Spending Review 2025 document refers to an estimated average annual real-terms growth rate for Local Authority (LA) Core Spending Power of 3.1% per year from 2023-24 to 2028-29. The approach to council tax within these estimates is in line with standard practice for LA Core Spending Power figures published by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/explanatory-note-on-core-spending-power-final-local-government-finance-settlement-2025-to-2026/explanatory-note-on-core-spending-power-final-local-government-finance-settlement-2025-to-2026. As also set out in Table 5.17, the estimated average annual real terms increase in grant funding between 2023-24 and 2028-29 for the Local Government Departmental Expenditure Limit (DEL) budget will be 5.2%. Between 2025-26 and 2028-29, it will be 1.1%.

With reference to box 4.A of the Spending Review 2025, published on 11 June 2025, how much of the financial transactions set out in the document are additional to the quantum which was assumed at Autumn Budget 2024; and what estimate her Department has made of the potential impact of this additional activity on (a) public sector net cash requirement, (b) public sector net debt, (c) public sector net debt excluding Bank of England, (d) central government debt interest spending and (e) overall gilt issuance for each financial year up to and including 2029-30, compared to the forecasts published at Spring Statement 2025.

At the Budget last Autumn, the government set out a clear fiscal strategy to stabilise the public finances and underpin growth. This involved introducing new fiscal rules which provide stability, put the public finances on a sustainable path and ensure our public services are sustainably funded. The fiscal rules set in the Autumn have supported the step change needed in investment, kick starting a decade of national renewal. For the first time, the fiscal rules recognise where financial assets generate future returns. At SR25, the government allocated an additional £9.6 billion in financial transactions to good value-for-money investment opportunities identified through the Spending Review process, subject to the robust guardrails set out in the financial transaction control framework. The Treasury does not publish forecasts of the economy or public finances; the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the UK’s official forecaster and provides independent analysis of the UK’s public finances. In its March forecast, the OBR confirmed that the government is on track to meet its fiscal rules, thanks to decisive action taken by the government to put the public finances on a sustainable trajectory and grow the economy. The OBR will publish an updated forecast later this year in the usual way.

With reference to paragraph 2.20 of the Spending Review 2025, published on 11 June 2025, if she will provide a breakdown of the £1 billion estimated savings from spending on the asylum system by (a) area of spend, (b) capital vs resource spending and (c) each financial year up to and including 2028-29.

This government inherited an unaffordable and unsustainable asylum pressure, which is why this government has taken action to reduce asylum costs. The Home Secretary’s robust reforms, including investment in the new Border Security Command, are aimed at reducing small boat arrivals, reducing the asylum and appeals backlog and returning those without the right to be here. This will address the underlying causes of high asylum costs by enabling asylum hotel exits and see asylum support costs fall by at least £1 billion a year by 2028-29 compared to 2024-25 spending.

With reference to Table 5.8 of the Spending Review, published on 11 June 2025, (a) what analysis informed the estimates for increases in police core spending power and (b) what increases in police council tax precepts were assumed, set out in (i) annual percentage increase terms, (ii) cash terms and (iii) real terms.

Police core spending power refers to the projected total police settlement funding for Counter Terrorism Police and Territorial Police. The Phase 2 settlement provides an average 1.7% real terms increase per year in police spending power. Over the SR period, police spending power is projected to increase by an average 2.3% per year in real terms. The average real terms increase to police core spending power over the SR period was calculated based on the GDP deflator as of Spring Statement 2025. Police core spending power includes projected spending from additional income, including estimated funding from the police council tax precept. However, this remains subject to final decision on precept levels and individual police and crime commissioner decisions. The final police precept level and core government funding will be set out in the annual police funding settlement in the usual way.

If she will make a comparative assessment of the outturn and forecast data for public sector net (a) borrowing, (b) debt, excluding Bank of England debt, and (c) financial liabilities for each financial year from 2024-25 until 2029-30 (i) before and (ii) after 29 July 2024.

The information requested is publicly available. Forecast data is published on the OBR’s website https://obr.uk/publications/. Outturn public finances data is published on the ONS website https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance. At Autumn Budget 2024, the government put the public finances on a sustainable path by strengthening the fiscal framework, including announcing new fiscal rules, and taking difficult decisions on tax, welfare and spending. In March 2025, the Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed that the government is on track to meet its fiscal rules.

If she will make it her Department’s policy to announce changes to winter fuel payments at fiscal events.

This Government remains absolutely committed to supporting pensioners and giving them the dignity and security they deserve in retirement. The Government took the right action last July to support the public finances. Tough but fair decisions were taken, including making sure Winter Fuel Payments would be targeted at those with the highest need. That principle still stands. As the economy improves, the Government wants to make sure people feel those improvements. The Government wants to ensure that more pensioners are eligible for Winter Fuel Payments.

For what reason her Department did not make an assessment of the potential impact of the proposed Double Contribution Convention with India on the public purse before agreeing to it.

The OBR will certify the impact of the trade deal including the Double Contributions Convention in the usual way at a fiscal event, once the deal is finalised and ratified. The agreement to negotiate a Double Contributions Convention was made in the context of the wider deal, which will bring billions into the economy.

What estimate she has made of the cost to the public purse of migrants to the UK gaining access to (a) welfare payments and (b) other services as a result of obtaining indefinite leave to remain for each financial year from 2024-25 onward.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) produces forecasts of the UK’s economic and fiscal position.Box 4.5 of the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook published in March 2024 sets out estimated impacts of migration on the fiscal forecast. As the minimum residency required to move to indefinite leave to remain is currently at least 5 years, this falls outside the forecast period. As the OBR says in the March 2024 EFO: ”However, our forecasts will capture the cost of any immigrants from previous cohorts who now claim welfare through Indefinite leave to remain grants because their claims will be included in the outturn data that provides the starting point for our forecast”.

Pursuant to the Answer of 7 April 2025 to Question 43439 on Public Expenditure, the Answer of 26 March 2025 to Question 40157 on Public Expenditure and with reference to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury's statement to the House on 28 October 2024, Official Report, column 562, whether the Chief Secretary will correct the record.

The current budget was last in a sustained surplus between 1998-99 and 2001-02. The last financial year for which the current budget was in surplus was 2018-19, when there was a surplus of 0.0% of GDP. This information is available in the public finances databank, published by the Office for Budget Responsibility: www.obr.uk/data/

With reference to paragraph 3.2 of the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published on 26 March 2025, what changes were made to the reduction in the level of the Universal Credit health element following the certification deadline; and for what reason.

In response to feedback from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government made amendments to the policy parameters of the changes to the Universal Credit health element. The government is freezing the reduced Universal Credit health element level for new claimants, in line with our objectives to rebalance the system, rather than uprating it by Consumer Price Index inflation.This update was made after the statement to the House delivered by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025, once the Office for Budget Responsibility had given its final assessment of the costing and behavioural assumptions associated with the measure. The adjustments were made to ensure we continue to strike the right balance between setting strong work incentives and fiscal sustainability.

With reference to paragraph 3.2 of the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published on 26 March 2025, what changes were made to the universal credit standard allowance increase following the certification deadline; and for what reason.

In response to feedback from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government made amendments to the policy parameters of the Universal Credit standard allowance change. The UC standard allowance will reach £106 per week in 2029-30, an increase above inflation.This update was made after the statement delivered to the House by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025, once the Office for Budget Responsibility had given its final assessment of the costing and behavioural assumptions associated with the measure. The adjustments were made to ensure we continue to strike the right balance between setting strong work incentives and fiscal sustainability.

Pursuant to the Answer of 26 March 2025 to Question 40157 on Public Expenditure, and with reference to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury's statement to the House on 28 October 2024, Official Report, column 562, whether it is her Department's policy to target an overall budget surplus.

At Autumn Budget 2024, the government confirmed new fiscal rules to put the public finances on a sustainable path, and prioritise investment to support long-term growth. The stability rule is that the current budget must be in surplus in 2029-30, until 29-30 becomes the third year of the forecast period. From that point, the current budget must then remain in balance or in surplus from the third year of the rolling forecast period, where balance is defined as a range: in surplus, or in deficit of no more than 0.5% of GDP. This range will support the government’s commitment to a single fiscal event every year by avoiding the need for policy adjustment at forecasts outside of fiscal events. If the range is used between fiscal events, the current budget must return to surplus from the third year at the following fiscal event.In its March 2025 forecast, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed the government was on track to meet its stability and investment rules two years early. By 2029-30, the current budget is forecast to be in a surplus of £9.9 billion.

With reference to paragraph 3.2 of the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published on 26 March 2025, how the policies scored at the Spring Statement differ from the policies announced by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025; and for what reason these policies were changed.

In response to feedback from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government made amendments to the policy parameters of two measures. Firstly, the Universal Credit standard allowance will reach £106 per week in 2029-30, an increase above inflation. This differs to the level of £107 per week in 2029-30, which was the latest policy assumption at the time of the statement to the House delivered by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025. Secondly, the government will freeze the reduced Universal Credit health element level for new claimants, in line with our objectives to rebalance the system, rather than uprating it by Consumer Price Index inflation, which was the policy assumption at the time of the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions’s statement to the House on 18 March 2025. These updates were made after statement, once the Office for Budget Responsibility had given its final assessment of the costings and behavioural assumptions associated with the measures. The adjustments we have made ensure we continue to strike the right balance between setting strong work incentives and fiscal sustainability. This package remains consistent with the government’s Green Paper and the statement to the House made by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025.

What proportion of the additional defence expenditure she announced at the Spring Statement falls under capital departmental expenditure limits; what proportion falls under resource departmental expenditure limits; and for what reason these allocations were arrived at.

The Chancellor’s Spring Statement document, published on 26 March, set out the Resource DEL and Capital DEL uplifts to defence spending over the scorecard period.A greater proportion of the uplift will be Capital DEL funding. This reflects the needs of defence, and will enable the accelerated the adoption of cutting-edge capabilities, and rebuild stockpiles, munitions, and other essentials depleted after a period focussed on international terrorism and global crises. This Capital DEL focus also supports the Chancellor’s mission to boost growth, enabling greater spending on novel and innovative technologies.The allocation of this uplift and the MOD budget will be confirmed as part of the Spending Review 2025, which will conclude on 11 June 2025.

What the net impact of (a) Government policies since 4 July 2024, (b) the Autumn Budget 2024 and (c) the Spring Statement 2025 has been on the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecasts for real household disposable income per person in each financial year between 2024-25 and 2029-30.

HM Treasury does not prepare forecasts for the UK economy. Forecasts, including for real household disposable income per person, are the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). These forecasts are published by the OBR as part of their Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO). The OBR’s assessment of policy decisions at the 2024 Autumn Budget can be found in their October 2024 EFO, available here: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2024/ The OBR’s assessment of policy decisions at the 2025 Spring Statement can be found in their March 2025 EFO, available here: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/ In their March forecast, after accounting for the effects of policy at both events, the OBR forecast was for RHDI per capita to rise by an annual average of 0.5% over this parliament (Q3 2024 – Q2 2029).