Speeches by Glen.

“I am just not clear what you think is going to get those people into employment in the first place, and what is going to persuade employers, given the context that now exists for them, to make the decision to employ people.”

“0.1% next year and 0.1% the following year?”

“Yesterday, the OBR confirmed that, when you have taken account of the commitments you have made—3% on defence, the SEND investment and the average spending on health—if you look at the unprotected Departments in the last year of the Parliament, there will be a £13 billion gap and a 4.4% cut in spending across those. Ob…”

“It was different then.”

“I was not going to say that.”

“Chancellor, what I am trying to get at is this. We have about 5.5 million small businesses that say the combination of the national insurance increases, the doubling—broadly—of the rate of inflation, the increases in the national living wage, and the uncertainty over the effect of the Employment Rights Act, given that …”

“Between your forecast in late November and last week, growth for this year went from 1.4% to 1.1%. Can you explain the main drivers of that?”

“Can I just interject there briefly? I do not think anyone would dispute the potential for those things to make a meaningful difference, but we have to address the immediate context that the country faces, which includes the cost of employing people and the behaviours that we see on the ground. The OBR has talked about …”

“It’s hardly likely to be positive, is it?”

“Chancellor, could we turn to growth? You are 20 months into a five-year term—a third of the way through. You have talked about the National Wealth Fund, planning reform and a new industrial strategy as some of the things that you have done to drive growth, but if we look at some of the OBR’s assessments, obviously ther…”

“The answer the Chief Secretary tried to give me this morning was about the value of efficiencies. Have we seen efficiencies on a scale to deal with a 4.4% deficit?”

“What does it do for an employer who is anxious?”

“Could I ask a question about the presumptions of spending? I think the Government say they want a real-terms increase of 0.3% in ’29-30. If you assume that they spend on health at the average level, they spend on SEND as per the proposals and they make their 3% on defence by ’29-30, I think it has been calculated that …”

“That is, in any terms, quite a challenging situation for any Government in terms of the presentational reality of a cut of over 4% in those unprotected Departments. It leads one to draw the conclusion that all these numbers are loaded to get through the immediate term but are not very realistic. What are the scenarios …”

“What I am asking about is this: if the propensity to employ somebody is less, that is a theoretical construct, because the person will not be in a job in the first place. Are you saying that you are committed to a higher-cost labour and higher capital investment growth strategy? Is that a fair summary of where your mea…”

“And only doing things over 0.1%.”

“I recognise that. I think everyone would say that. It was a pretty difficult situation before the Budget. I am thinking more fundamentally about the Treasury’s forecasting function, when it has to live within the OBR’s determinations. Is there a danger that the dynamic of decision making means that the reference point …”

“May I move to Mr Haile and ask about the dynamics of our processes in the UK and the effect that the OBR has had? There was a lot of discussion about the dynamics between the Treasury and the OBR in the run-up to the autumn Budget. What do you see in the way that the OBR’s dynamics with the Treasury have evolved? Are w…”

“Essentially, you are saying that the analysis and commentaries are quite superficial, and do not take account of the real, relative values across different jurisdictions.”

“Thank you very much. Ms Mehta, the gilt yields that we see in the UK are the highest in the G7. Please could you explain to us why that is?”