Speeches by Glen.

“This whole debate rather underscores that there is a high degree of volatility in these assessments. You have been through more fiscal events than we have over the past 15 years. The variance between consecutive fiscal events is usually quite significant, from something that is presented by successive Chancellors as an…”

“The OBR’s central forecast did not, I think, take account of the effect of the US tariffs. Obviously, we are trying to scrutinise it as thoughtfully as we can, but it feels like more could have been done. Given how central the US is as a trading partner to the UK, would it not have been more prudent for the OBR, at lea…”

“I want to ask a final question of Dr Saleheen about tariffs. What are your reflections on recent events, what you see unfolding with tariffs and the effect on the UK economy that has not been reflected so far in the events of last week?”

“Could we turn to tariffs? Dr Saleheen, could you explain how Vanguard’s economic models incorporate the effect of US tariffs on the economy?”

“Thank you; I think I have used up my time.”

“£9.93 billion.”

“Would you approach that in a gradual way, or a quicker way? What would your advice be to the Chancellor and her team?”

“Some say the Government did not go far enough on capital gains tax—it is often seen that way. The Government raised it to 24% but did not completely align it to income levels. There has been some speculation about the behavioural effect in the period leading up to that, in terms of revenues, as people are anticipating …”

“Should we not ask the question of the Chancellor tomorrow then?”

“Could I ask a follow-up on that specific point? Under the previous Government, childcare policy was quite significant and there was quite an intense iterative process between the Treasury and the OBR with respect to scoring it. It would be fair to say that the Treasury would, in some circumstances, be keen to push you …”

“The key concern is that the Government are elected to decide, and you have a lot of influence over that. There is contestability over what level of maturity policies are at. Obviously, all Governments would say, “This is going to deliver x,” and you could say, “Well, no, it is going to deliver y.” I think people are ve…”

“Thank you very much, Mr Hughes.”

“Last week, President Trump announced tariffs on car imports. If those had been in your forecast, would all the Chancellor’s headroom have been used up already?”

“The key issue that is dominating the news today is what effect these tariffs will have. I appreciate this is in the context of ongoing conversations and that the Business Secretary is anxious to say that we do not want to do anything that will precipitate a worse outcome, but given that your central forecast is the one…”

“And that does not incorporate the recent changes?”

“I recognise that that is a very fair depiction of the uncertainties, but none the less you are, as we discussed earlier, the arbiters of what Government policy is, which must evolve in real time. We will see some economists this afternoon who I think have incorporated tariffs into their forecasts, and private sector or…”

“Do you want more people?”

“Everyone always says that, but do you need more to be at the cutting edge?”

“Turning to Professor Miles, the theme we are finding is that there is a grave amount of uncertainty in world trade policy. The countermeasures that the respective countries that are most impacted take are also difficult to compute. Is it fair to say that we should view all economists’ assessments of future trade policy…”

“Trump could still be there, if recent reports are correct.”