Written questions by Stephenson.

If her Department will make an assessment of the adequacy of rules on access to (a) cash and (b) banking services in new towns.

The Government recognises that cash continues to be used by millions of people across the UK, including those in vulnerable groups, and is committed to protecting access to cash for individuals and businesses.The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) assumed regulatory responsibility for access to cash in September 2024. Its rules require the UK’s largest banks and building societies to assess the impact of a closure or material alteration of a relevant cash withdrawal or deposit facility and put in place a new service if necessary. Where a resident, community organisation or other interested party feels access to cash in their community is insufficient, they can submit a request for a cash access assessment. Further information about submitting a cash access request can be found at the following link:  https://www.link.co.uk/helping-you-access-cash/request-access-to-cashThe Government is also committed to ensuring appropriate banking services are in place to support communities across the country. This is why the Government is working closely with industry to roll out 350 banking hubs across the UK by the end of this Parliament. These hubs will provide small businesses and individuals with critical cash and in-person banking services. Over 200 banking hubs have been recommended to date and over 100 are already open.

What assessment she has made of the potential contribution of Cranfield to his plans to double the size of the economy of the Oxford to Cambridge Growth Corridor.

The Chancellor has recently announced the government’s commitment to unlock growth in the Oxford-Cambridge Growth Corridor and the high potential sectors within it, as part of the government’s Plan for Change to kickstart economic growth.The Oxford-Cambridge region is home to world leading universities, and globally renowned science and technology firms. But its true potential is being held back and we need to go further to address the key barriers to growth across this region to deliver benefits for the whole country. This could, according to industry experts, boost the UK economy by £78 billion, catalysing the growth of UK science and technology. Any approach to growth should build on the assets already represented in the corridor, such as Cranfield University’s existing aerospace strengths.As champion for the Oxford-Cambridge Growth Corridor, Lord Vallance will look across the region, including Cranfield, to identify key opportunities for growth.

What assessment she has made of the potential implications for her policies of paragraph 59 of the Impact Assessment for the Immigration and Nationality (Fees) Order (Amendment) 2025, dated 13 January 2025.

The Impact Assessment for the Immigration and Nationality (Fees) Order (Amendment) 2025 considered a range of economic costs and benefits of the proposed changes, of which the indirect impact on the exchequer was one. However, this was considered alongside the estimated benefits, including the estimated revenue generated from the changes, as set out in paragraph 68.The overall impact of these changes, if made in subsequent Regulations, is uncertain, and a range of impacts has been presented. However, in the central case, the Impact Assessment estimates a positive Net Present Social Value of £203.5 million over the five year period, were fees theoretically to be raised from current levels to the proposed maxima as set out in paragraph 85.

Pursuant to the Answer to Written Question 25789 on Tax Yields: British Nationals Abroad, whether her Department made an assessment of the potential impact of (a) changes Capital Gains Tax and (b) the Autumn Budget on the number of wealthy taxpayers domiciled in the UK before they were announced.

The Government assessed the impacts of all Budget measures across all levels of income. This includes the impact upon wealthy taxpayers domiciled in the UK. These impacts, grouped together cumulatively, are published online here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672156834da1c0d41942a8c9/Impact_on_households.pdf In determining the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) costings, which were signed off by the OBR, a range of potential behavioural responses were analysed. CGT is paid by fewer than 1% of adults every year, and the Budget changes to CGT will primarily affect people selling financial assets beyond the ISA allowance. The UK’s CGT rates remain internationally competitive. The Government publishes Tax Information and Impact Notes (TIINs) for all Budget measures, and the TIIN for CGT can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-the-rates-of-capital-gains-tax/1cf25453-5b0c-4e7b-9165-65cf117e0af0

If she will make an assessment of the potential impact of the Autumn Budget 2024 on trends in the level of employment in the hospitality sector in (a) 2024-25 and (b) 2025-26.

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s October 2024 forecast, which considers the impact of all the Budget measures, expects the employment level to increase from 33.1 million in 2024 to 34.3 million in 2029. The Autumn Budget 2024 introduced measures that benefit the hospitality sector. Cutting alcohol duty on qualifying draught products represents an overall reduction in duty bills of over £85m a year and is equivalent to a 1p duty reduction on a typical strength pint. On business rates, for 2025-26, the government will provide a 40 per cent discount to Retail, Hospitality and Leisure (RHL) properties up to a cash cap of £110,0000 per business and has frozen the small business multiplier. This will save the average pub, with a rateable value (RV) of £16,800, over £3,300 in 2025. From 2026-27, the government intends to introduce permanently lower tax rates for RHL properties with an RV below £500,000 .

Pursuant to the Answer of 29 January 2025 on Question 25795 on Agriculture and Business: Inheritance Tax, how many of the 2,000 estates will contain woodlands.

Woodlands may be eligible for certain inheritance tax reliefs and exemptions, depending on the type of woodland and its purpose. Guidance is available at www.gov.uk/guidance/woodland-owners-tax-guidance. It is estimated that a total of around 2,000 estates will pay more inheritance tax in 2026-27 following the reforms to agricultural property relief and business property relief. The previous answer outlined that around half of those estates are expected to only hold shares designated as not listed on recognised stock exchanges, such as the Alternative Investment Market. While estates include supporting documentation about the type of assets on which they claim these reliefs when submitting their claims, only the value of eligible assets is digitally captured in a format available for further analysis. As such, this level of detail is not available from historic claims to estimate how many future estates might contain woodland.

Whether she discussed bank branch closures with the Chief Executive Officer of Lloyds during their meeting on 28 January 2025.

Ministers and treasury officials regularly meet with the retail banks to discuss a wide variety of topics. Banking has changed significantly in recent years with many customers benefitting from the ease and convenience of remote banking. FCA guidance expects firms to carefully consider the impact of planned branch closures on their customers’ everyday banking and cash access needs and put in place alternatives where reasonable. The Government recognises the importance of face-to-face banking to communities and high streets, and is committed to championing sufficient access for all. This is why the Government continues to work with banks, including Lloyds Banking Group, to roll out 350 banking hubs across the UK by the end of this Parliament. Currently over 200 banking hubs have been recommended and over 100 are already open.

Whether she has provided funding from the public purse to offset the impact of changes to employers’ National Insurance contributions on public sector arms-length bodies.

The Government will provide support for departments and other public sector employers for additional employer National Insurance Contributions costs only. This funding will be allocated to departments, with the Barnett formula applying in the usual way, which is in line with the approach taken under the previous Government’s Health and Social Care Levy.The Government plans to publish allocations for departments alongside departmental budgets for 2025/26 as part of Mains estimates.

What estimate she has made of the marginal propensity to consume of (a) all pensioners, (b) pensioners under the threshold for Pension Credit and (c) pensioners over the threshold for Pension Credit.

HM Treasury does not hold this information. The average award of Pension Credit is worth more than £4,200 a year, providing a safety net for pensioners on the lowest incomes. The UK Government is focused on maximising Pension Credit take-up to ensure those entitled to it are getting the support they need. Over 12 million pensioners will benefit from our commitment to protect the Triple Lock on the new and basic State Pensions. Based on OBR Autumn 2024 forecasts, over the course of this Parliament, the full yearly rate of the new State Pension is expected to increase by around £1900.

If she will make an estimate of the impact of her policies on employers’ National Insurance contributions on economic growth.

A Tax Information and Impact Note (TIIN) was published alongside the introduction of the Bill containing the changes to employer NICs. The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer, the economic impacts of the policy, and the impacts on individuals, businesses, and civil society organisations, as well as an overview of the equality impacts. In their October 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated the increase in employer NICs will reduce the level of potential output by 0.1% at the forecast horizon, by reducing labour supply by around 50,000 average hours equivalent. Overall, once the impact of all Budget measures are taken into consideration, the OBR expect the employment level to increase from 33.1 million in 2024 to 34.3 million in 2029. The Economic and Fiscal Outlook also sets out the costing for the employer NICs increase, including behavioural impacts, in table 3.2.https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_Oct_2024.pdf

Whether her Department has produced modelling on the potential behavioural impact of increases to employers’ National Insurance.

A Tax Information and Impact Note (TIIN) was published alongside the introduction of the Bill containing the changes to employer NICs. The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer, the economic impacts of the policy, and the impacts on individuals, businesses, and civil society organisations, as well as an overview of the equality impacts. In their October 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated the increase in employer NICs will reduce the level of potential output by 0.1% at the forecast horizon, by reducing labour supply by around 50,000 average hours equivalent. Overall, once the impact of all Budget measures are taken into consideration, the OBR expect the employment level to increase from 33.1 million in 2024 to 34.3 million in 2029. The Economic and Fiscal Outlook also sets out the costing for the employer NICs increase, including behavioural impacts, in table 3.2.https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_Oct_2024.pdf

What estimate her Department made of job losses when calculating the contribution to the public purse of the increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions.

A Tax Information and Impact Note (TIIN) was published alongside the introduction of the Bill containing the changes to employer NICs. The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer, the economic impacts of the policy, and the impacts on individuals, businesses, and civil society organisations, as well as an overview of the equality impacts. In their October 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated the increase in employer NICs will reduce the level of potential output by 0.1% at the forecast horizon, by reducing labour supply by around 50,000 average hours equivalent. Overall, once the impact of all Budget measures are taken into consideration, the OBR expect the employment level to increase from 33.1 million in 2024 to 34.3 million in 2029. The Economic and Fiscal Outlook also sets out the costing for the employer NICs increase, including behavioural impacts, in table 3.2.https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_Oct_2024.pdf

What steps her Department took to help tackle (a) illicit finance and (b) economic crime between 4 July 2024 and 14 January 2025.

The Government is committed to tackling illicit finance and economic crime. We have appointed an Anti-Corruption Champion Baroness Hodge to support the government's agenda in tackling corruption at home and overseas. HM Treasury has been working with partners across the public and private sector to update our National Risk Assessment for money laundering and terrorist financing; and to deliver Economic Crime Plan 2, our public-private strategy to combat economic crime and strengthen the UK system. This includes work on HM Treasury owned actions to reform our Anti-Money Laundering/Counter Terrorist Financing supervisory regime, and to improve the effectiveness of the Money Laundering Regulations. HM Treasury has also continued its work to tackle international illicit finance flows and strengthen the global system, representing the UK at the Financial Action Task Force; and conducting regular engagement with governments around the world on how to improve their anti-money laundering systems.

If she will make an estimate of the number of taxpayers set to pay the higher rate of income tax in financial year 2025-26 compared with financial year 2024-25.

The information requested on the impact on taxpayer numbers as a result of threshold freezes is published as part of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO). The published table sets out the estimated numbers of taxpayers with and without indexation of the thresholds and the impact of the thresholds being frozen. This information is updated in the EFO in each fiscal event. An excerpt from Table 3.18 from the October 2024 EFO: 3.18 Effect of threshold freezes on additional taxpayers Million Forecast 2023-242024-252025-26Number of taxpayers With indexation34.134.335.1Without indexation36.237.638.6…brought into income tax2.23.33.5Number of higher-rate taxpayers With indexation4.74.44.5Without indexation6.16.67.0…brought into higher-rate band1.42.22.5Number of additional-rate taxpayers Previous £150,000 threshold0.70.70.8Aligned to the end of PA taper0.91.11.2…brought into additional-rate band0.30.40.4…brought into higher and additional rates1.62.62.9 As shown in the table, 3.5 million more individuals are expected to pay income tax in 2025-26 as a result of the threshold freezes. The number of Higher rate taxpayers is expected to increase from 6.6 million in 2024-25 to 7.0 million in 2025-26 (a rise of 0.4 million), and additional rate taxpayer numbers are expected to increase from 1.1 million to 1.2 million (a rise of 0.1 million). The full table is available as Table 3.18 in the detailed forecast of receipts: October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook – detailed forecast tables: receipts (obr.uk) The latest ONS estimate for median earnings for 2023-24 is £31,602, and this can be projected using OBR’s average earnings growth forecasts, which gives an estimate of median earnings for 2024-25 of £33,035 and 2025-26 of £34,011. An individual with solely income from these earnings would expect to have total Income Tax and Employee National Insurance liabilities of £5,730 in 2024-25 and £6,003 in 2025-26. Individuals aged 21 and over earning minimum wage and working 35 hours per week would be expected to earn £20,821 and £22,222 in tax years 2024-25 and 2025-26 respectively. These would result in Income Tax and Employee National Insurance liabilities of:£1,650 and £660 in 2024-25,£1,930 and £772 in 2025-26. Further information on the ONS data for median earnings can be found in their annual publication: 2024 provisional earnings and hours worked, all employees (ons.gov.uk) Earnings growth forecasts are published in the OBR’s forecast tables: October 2024 Detailed forecast tables: Economy (obr.uk)

If she will make an estimate of the number of taxpayers set to pay the additional rate of income tax in financial year 2025-26 compared with financial year 2024-25.

The information requested on the impact on taxpayer numbers as a result of threshold freezes is published as part of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO). The published table sets out the estimated numbers of taxpayers with and without indexation of the thresholds and the impact of the thresholds being frozen. This information is updated in the EFO in each fiscal event. An excerpt from Table 3.18 from the October 2024 EFO: 3.18 Effect of threshold freezes on additional taxpayers Million Forecast 2023-242024-252025-26Number of taxpayers With indexation34.134.335.1Without indexation36.237.638.6…brought into income tax2.23.33.5Number of higher-rate taxpayers With indexation4.74.44.5Without indexation6.16.67.0…brought into higher-rate band1.42.22.5Number of additional-rate taxpayers Previous £150,000 threshold0.70.70.8Aligned to the end of PA taper0.91.11.2…brought into additional-rate band0.30.40.4…brought into higher and additional rates1.62.62.9 As shown in the table, 3.5 million more individuals are expected to pay income tax in 2025-26 as a result of the threshold freezes. The number of Higher rate taxpayers is expected to increase from 6.6 million in 2024-25 to 7.0 million in 2025-26 (a rise of 0.4 million), and additional rate taxpayer numbers are expected to increase from 1.1 million to 1.2 million (a rise of 0.1 million). The full table is available as Table 3.18 in the detailed forecast of receipts: October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook – detailed forecast tables: receipts (obr.uk) The latest ONS estimate for median earnings for 2023-24 is £31,602, and this can be projected using OBR’s average earnings growth forecasts, which gives an estimate of median earnings for 2024-25 of £33,035 and 2025-26 of £34,011. An individual with solely income from these earnings would expect to have total Income Tax and Employee National Insurance liabilities of £5,730 in 2024-25 and £6,003 in 2025-26. Individuals aged 21 and over earning minimum wage and working 35 hours per week would be expected to earn £20,821 and £22,222 in tax years 2024-25 and 2025-26 respectively. These would result in Income Tax and Employee National Insurance liabilities of:£1,650 and £660 in 2024-25,£1,930 and £772 in 2025-26. Further information on the ONS data for median earnings can be found in their annual publication: 2024 provisional earnings and hours worked, all employees (ons.gov.uk) Earnings growth forecasts are published in the OBR’s forecast tables: October 2024 Detailed forecast tables: Economy (obr.uk)

If she will make an assessment of the potential impact of Autumn Budget 2024 on recent trends in the level of mortgage rates.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the UK’s official forecaster of the economy and public finances. The OBR published its assessment of the UK economy, and the effect of policies announced at the 2024 Autumn Budget, in its October 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.The OBR will publish its next assessment of the UK economy on 26 March 2025, as commissioned by the Chancellor.

If she will make an estimate of the average annual cost of a five year fixed rate mortgage (a) on the week commencing 21 October 2024 and (b) in January 2025.

The pricing and availability of mortgages is ultimately a commercial decision for lenders, in which the Government does not intervene. Changes in offered mortgage rates are broadly driven by changes in financial market expectations for Bank Rate.Monetary policy, including decisions on Bank Rate, is the responsibility of the independent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England. The Government remains committed to monetary policy independence and supporting the MPC to return inflation to target sustainably, and does not comment on the conduct or effectiveness of monetary policy.External organisations, such as the Bank of England and Moneyfacts, track movements in offered mortgage rates.

If she will make an estimate of the total amount of tax someone on the median salary will pay in financial year (a) 2024-25 and (b) 2025-26.

The information requested on the impact on taxpayer numbers as a result of threshold freezes is published as part of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO). The published table sets out the estimated numbers of taxpayers with and without indexation of the thresholds and the impact of the thresholds being frozen. This information is updated in the EFO in each fiscal event. An excerpt from Table 3.18 from the October 2024 EFO: 3.18 Effect of threshold freezes on additional taxpayers Million Forecast 2023-242024-252025-26Number of taxpayers With indexation34.134.335.1Without indexation36.237.638.6…brought into income tax2.23.33.5Number of higher-rate taxpayers With indexation4.74.44.5Without indexation6.16.67.0…brought into higher-rate band1.42.22.5Number of additional-rate taxpayers Previous £150,000 threshold0.70.70.8Aligned to the end of PA taper0.91.11.2…brought into additional-rate band0.30.40.4…brought into higher and additional rates1.62.62.9 As shown in the table, 3.5 million more individuals are expected to pay income tax in 2025-26 as a result of the threshold freezes. The number of Higher rate taxpayers is expected to increase from 6.6 million in 2024-25 to 7.0 million in 2025-26 (a rise of 0.4 million), and additional rate taxpayer numbers are expected to increase from 1.1 million to 1.2 million (a rise of 0.1 million). The full table is available as Table 3.18 in the detailed forecast of receipts: October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook – detailed forecast tables: receipts (obr.uk) The latest ONS estimate for median earnings for 2023-24 is £31,602, and this can be projected using OBR’s average earnings growth forecasts, which gives an estimate of median earnings for 2024-25 of £33,035 and 2025-26 of £34,011. An individual with solely income from these earnings would expect to have total Income Tax and Employee National Insurance liabilities of £5,730 in 2024-25 and £6,003 in 2025-26. Individuals aged 21 and over earning minimum wage and working 35 hours per week would be expected to earn £20,821 and £22,222 in tax years 2024-25 and 2025-26 respectively. These would result in Income Tax and Employee National Insurance liabilities of:£1,650 and £660 in 2024-25,£1,930 and £772 in 2025-26. Further information on the ONS data for median earnings can be found in their annual publication: 2024 provisional earnings and hours worked, all employees (ons.gov.uk) Earnings growth forecasts are published in the OBR’s forecast tables: October 2024 Detailed forecast tables: Economy (obr.uk)

If she will make an estimate of the number of additional individuals her Department expects to pay tax in financial year 2025-26 as a result of the freeze on income tax thresholds.

The information requested on the impact on taxpayer numbers as a result of threshold freezes is published as part of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO). The published table sets out the estimated numbers of taxpayers with and without indexation of the thresholds and the impact of the thresholds being frozen. This information is updated in the EFO in each fiscal event. An excerpt from Table 3.18 from the October 2024 EFO: 3.18 Effect of threshold freezes on additional taxpayers Million Forecast 2023-242024-252025-26Number of taxpayers With indexation34.134.335.1Without indexation36.237.638.6…brought into income tax2.23.33.5Number of higher-rate taxpayers With indexation4.74.44.5Without indexation6.16.67.0…brought into higher-rate band1.42.22.5Number of additional-rate taxpayers Previous £150,000 threshold0.70.70.8Aligned to the end of PA taper0.91.11.2…brought into additional-rate band0.30.40.4…brought into higher and additional rates1.62.62.9 As shown in the table, 3.5 million more individuals are expected to pay income tax in 2025-26 as a result of the threshold freezes. The number of Higher rate taxpayers is expected to increase from 6.6 million in 2024-25 to 7.0 million in 2025-26 (a rise of 0.4 million), and additional rate taxpayer numbers are expected to increase from 1.1 million to 1.2 million (a rise of 0.1 million). The full table is available as Table 3.18 in the detailed forecast of receipts: October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook – detailed forecast tables: receipts (obr.uk) The latest ONS estimate for median earnings for 2023-24 is £31,602, and this can be projected using OBR’s average earnings growth forecasts, which gives an estimate of median earnings for 2024-25 of £33,035 and 2025-26 of £34,011. An individual with solely income from these earnings would expect to have total Income Tax and Employee National Insurance liabilities of £5,730 in 2024-25 and £6,003 in 2025-26. Individuals aged 21 and over earning minimum wage and working 35 hours per week would be expected to earn £20,821 and £22,222 in tax years 2024-25 and 2025-26 respectively. These would result in Income Tax and Employee National Insurance liabilities of:£1,650 and £660 in 2024-25,£1,930 and £772 in 2025-26. Further information on the ONS data for median earnings can be found in their annual publication: 2024 provisional earnings and hours worked, all employees (ons.gov.uk) Earnings growth forecasts are published in the OBR’s forecast tables: October 2024 Detailed forecast tables: Economy (obr.uk)

If she will make an estimate of the total amount of (a) income tax and (b) employee national insurance paid by a full time minimum wage worker in (i) 2024-25 and (ii) 2025-26.

The information requested on the impact on taxpayer numbers as a result of threshold freezes is published as part of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO). The published table sets out the estimated numbers of taxpayers with and without indexation of the thresholds and the impact of the thresholds being frozen. This information is updated in the EFO in each fiscal event. An excerpt from Table 3.18 from the October 2024 EFO: 3.18 Effect of threshold freezes on additional taxpayers Million Forecast 2023-242024-252025-26Number of taxpayers With indexation34.134.335.1Without indexation36.237.638.6…brought into income tax2.23.33.5Number of higher-rate taxpayers With indexation4.74.44.5Without indexation6.16.67.0…brought into higher-rate band1.42.22.5Number of additional-rate taxpayers Previous £150,000 threshold0.70.70.8Aligned to the end of PA taper0.91.11.2…brought into additional-rate band0.30.40.4…brought into higher and additional rates1.62.62.9 As shown in the table, 3.5 million more individuals are expected to pay income tax in 2025-26 as a result of the threshold freezes. The number of Higher rate taxpayers is expected to increase from 6.6 million in 2024-25 to 7.0 million in 2025-26 (a rise of 0.4 million), and additional rate taxpayer numbers are expected to increase from 1.1 million to 1.2 million (a rise of 0.1 million). The full table is available as Table 3.18 in the detailed forecast of receipts: October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook – detailed forecast tables: receipts (obr.uk) The latest ONS estimate for median earnings for 2023-24 is £31,602, and this can be projected using OBR’s average earnings growth forecasts, which gives an estimate of median earnings for 2024-25 of £33,035 and 2025-26 of £34,011. An individual with solely income from these earnings would expect to have total Income Tax and Employee National Insurance liabilities of £5,730 in 2024-25 and £6,003 in 2025-26. Individuals aged 21 and over earning minimum wage and working 35 hours per week would be expected to earn £20,821 and £22,222 in tax years 2024-25 and 2025-26 respectively. These would result in Income Tax and Employee National Insurance liabilities of:£1,650 and £660 in 2024-25,£1,930 and £772 in 2025-26. Further information on the ONS data for median earnings can be found in their annual publication: 2024 provisional earnings and hours worked, all employees (ons.gov.uk) Earnings growth forecasts are published in the OBR’s forecast tables: October 2024 Detailed forecast tables: Economy (obr.uk)