Written questions by Stephenson.

With reference to the OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 1, published on 3 June 2025, whether she has made an assessment of the potential implications for her policies of the OECD's growth forecast for the UK in 2025.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an independent international organisation. As part of ongoing engagement with many different stakeholders relevant to the conduct of economic and fiscal policy, the Government engages regularly and constructively with the OECD, and values their independent advice and forecasting in the Economic Outlook. The OECD's Interim Economic Outlook will publish updated forecasts on 23 September 2025.

Pursuant to the Answer of 26 June to Written Question 61630 on Investment, what steps she is taking to talking to support retail participation in UK capital markets following the cancellation of the retail sale of NatWest shares.

The Chancellor’s Leeds Reforms will give more people the confidence to invest in our world-leading capital markets, benefitting both consumers and the UK economy. In particular, the Treasury is working closely with the FCA to roll out a system of targeted support in time for ISA season next year. This represents the biggest reform of the financial advice and guidance landscape in more than a decade, and will be a step change in the support available to consumers. The Government will also move Long-Term Asset Funds from the Innovative Finance ISA to the Stocks & Shares ISA from April 2026. This should give more consumers access to the higher returns available from less liquid assets, while directing investment into productive assets that will drive economic growth. In addition, the Government welcomes the industry-led initiatives to promote the benefits of investing to the public, and to reform how firms talk about the risks and benefits of investing.

With reference to her Department’s press release entitled Government completes exit from NatWest, published on 30 May 2025, what estimate her Department has made of the potential income from the retail model of sale.

On 30 May 2025, the government sold its remaining shares in NatWest Group, bringing to an end the public ownership of banks resulting from the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. The government focused on ensuring sales of NatWest shares were delivered in a way that achieved value for money for taxpayers. This included undertaking sales via Directed Buybacks and the Trading Plan, whereby any sales were undertaken at market price. UK Government Investments regularly conducted fair value assessments of the bank, with support from advisors, to determine a price per share above which it represented value for money for the government to sell at that point in time. Further details of the sales, including amounts raised, were included in the Economic Secretary’s Written Ministerial Statement of 3 June 2025. As the Chancellor set out in the July 2024 Spending Audit, the government does not believe that a retail offer represented value for money for taxpayers, given the likely incentives needed, which precedent suggests could have cost the public hundreds of millions more than selling via established disposal methods.

What assessment she has made of the potential impact of business rates on pub closures.

To deliver our manifesto pledge, we intend to introduce permanently lower tax rates for retail, hospitality, and leisure (RHL) properties with rateable values below £500,000, from 2026-27. This permanent tax cut will ensure that RHL businesses benefit from much-needed certainty and support. Eligibility for the new RHL multipliers is intended to broadly reflect the scope of the existing RHL relief scheme, and will be set out in legislation later this year. Ahead of these changes being made, the Government recognises that business will need support in 2025/26. As such, we have extended the RHL relief for one year at 40 per cent up to a cash cap of £110,000 per business. Under the previous Government, RHL relief was due to end entirely in April 2025. By extending the relief, the Government has saved the average pub, with a ratable value of £16,800, over £3,300. Tax policy and legislation is not subject to the Better Regulation Framework Guidance, which requires an Impact Assessment to accompany policy decisions. Nevertheless, when the new multipliers are set at Budget 2025, HM Treasury intends to publish analysis of the effects of the new multiplier arrangements.

If she will make an assessment of recent trends in the level of business confidence.

The Government monitors a wide range of indicators to assess the UK’s economic performance, including measures of business confidence. Many of these are volatile and can move materially from month to month. Official economic forecasts and assessments of policy impacts are set out in the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook documents, the most recent of which was published in March 2025. Kickstarting economic growth is the Government’s primary mission and businesses are central to this. The Government is committed to going further and faster to drive growth and raise living standards, working in close partnership with business to design and delivery policy.

What steps she is taking to ensure that savers have access to high return investment options.

The Government wants to see more people benefit from the higher returns and long-term financial resilience that investing can provide. That is why the Chancellor’s Leeds Reforms included bold actions to boost retail investment.In particular, the Treasury is working closely with the FCA to roll out a system of targeted support in time for ISA season next year. This represents the biggest reform of the financial advice and guidance landscape in more than a decade, and will be a step change in the support available to consumers.The Government will also move Long-Term Asset Funds (LTAFs) from the Innovative Finance ISA to the Stocks & Shares ISA from April 2026. This should give more consumers access to the higher returns available from less liquid assets, while directing investment into productive assets that will drive economic growth.In addition, the Government welcomes the industry-led initiatives to promote the benefits of investing to the public, and to reform how firms talk about the risks and benefits of investing.

With reference to her Department's press release entitled Government completes exit from NatWest, published on 30 May 2025, if she will publish Departmental analysis of the (a) chosen and (b) retail model of sale.

On 30 May 2025, the government sold its remaining shares in NatWest Group, bringing to an end the public ownership of banks resulting from the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. The government focused on ensuring sales of NatWest shares were delivered in a way that achieved value for money for taxpayers. This included undertaking sales via Directed Buybacks and the Trading Plan, whereby any sales were undertaken at market price. UK Government Investments regularly conducted fair value assessments of the bank, with support from advisors, to determine a price per share above which it represented value for money for the government to sell at that point in time. Further details of the sales, including amounts raised, were included in the Economic Secretary’s Written Ministerial Statement of 3 June 2025. As the Chancellor set out in the July 2024 Spending Audit, the government does not believe that a retail offer represented value for money for taxpayers, given the likely incentives needed, which precedent suggests could have cost the public hundreds of millions more than selling via established disposal methods.

What her planned thresholds are for income tax in 2029-30.

The Government is committed to keeping taxes for working people as low as possible while ensuring fiscal responsibility and so, at our first Budget, we decided not to extend the freeze on personal tax thresholds.

If she will make an assessment of the impact of her Budget in 2024 on the performance of AIM shares.

The UK’s capital markets play a key role in delivering on the government’s growth mission. We have already delivered an ambitious set of reforms to make it easier for firms to start, scale, list and stay on UK markets, and capital markets are a core pillar of the Financial Services Growth and Competitiveness Strategy, launched at Mansion House. The Government maintains a range of targeted tax reliefs for AIM shares, supporting capital raising for business listed on AIM, and investors in AIM shares. This supports growth on the broader UK economy.

Whether she plans reforms to encourage (a) investment and (b) growth in the (i) beer and (ii) pub sector.

The Government recognises the vital role that pubs play in supporting communities and local economies such as in Mid Bedfordshire. That’s why we are streamlining licensing via a new National Licensing Policy Framework to be more modern, proportionate, and enabling. This includes looking to removing the requirement for printed notices in local newspapers, increasing the maximum entitlement for temporary event notices and supporting the removal of outdated licence conditions. We have increased the generosity of the discount available for small brewers, by increasing the relative value of the Small Producers Relief discount, compared to the main duty rates, for both draught and non-draught products. We have cut alcohol duty on draught products saving the sector over £85m annually and we are also reviewing the beer market to enable small brewers better access to local pubs. To support businesses, including breweries, invest and grow, the Government committed to keeping a permanent full expensing system, as well as the Annual Investment Allowance (AIA). Full expensing allows companies to claim 100 per cent capital allowances on qualifying main rate investments. The more flexible AIA allows businesses to deduct the entire cost of investments, up to £1 million per year, including qualifying second-hand assets and assets bought for leasing or hiring. And finally, the Government has protected the smallest businesses from the impact of the increase to Employer National Insurance by more than doubling the Employment Allowance to £10,500, and will permanently lower tax for Retail, Hospitality and Leisure properties with rateable values below 500,000.

Whether her Department has made an assessment of the potential implications for her policies of the findings of the report entitled Taxing Futures: The economic and fiscal implications of changes to BPR & APR for UK family businesses and farms, published by Family Business UK in June 2025.

The Government believes its reforms to agricultural property relief and business property relief from 6 April 2026 get the balance right between supporting farms and businesses, and fixing the public finances. The reforms reduce the inheritance tax advantages available to owners of agricultural and business assets, but still mean those assets will be taxed at a much lower effective rate than most other assets. Despite a tough fiscal context, the Government will maintain very significant levels of relief from inheritance tax beyond what is available to others and compared to the position before 1992. Where inheritance tax is due, those liable for a charge can pay any liability on the relevant assets over 10 annual instalments, interest-free. The analysis commissioned by Family Business UK and undertaken by CBI Economics is based on a self-selecting online survey from members of representative groups campaigning against the reforms. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) certified the costing at Autumn Budget 2024. The reforms to agricultural property relief and business property relief are forecast to raise a combined £520 million in 2029-30. The OBR does not expect the reforms to have a significant macroeconomic impact.

Whether her Department has made an assessment of the potential implications for her policies of the findings of the report entitled Impact of changes to the UK non-domiciled regime, published by the Centre for Economics and Business Research in April 2025.

The Government’s priority is improving the UK’s competitiveness internationally and securing economic growth. The non-dom reforms have been specifically designed to make the UK competitive with a modern, simple tax regime that is also fair. The reforms establish a tax regime for new residents, which is more attractive to new arrivals than the current rules. The Government published a Tax Information and Impact Note for this policy on 30 October. This can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tax-changes-for-non-uk-domiciled-individuals/reforming-the-taxation-of-non-uk-domiciled-individuals. There have always been relatively large flows of non-doms in and out of the UK every year. For example. in the latest HMRC statistics for tax year 2023/24, 9,500 non-doms left and 9,100 arrived. We anticipate that some non-doms ineligible for the new regime will exit the UK in response to the changes. Taking this migration response into account, the OBR expects the non-dom reforms to raise £33.8 billion over the next five years to help fund the public services and investment projects needed to drive growth.

Pursuant to the Answer of 13 May 2025 to Question 49823 on Air Passenger Duty: Economic Growth, if she will estimate the potential impact of higher rates of Air Passenger Duty on the number of flights taken.

As set out in the March 2025 OBR forecast, passenger numbers are expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels in the coming year, and are expected to be around 10% higher than 2024-25 once the new APD rates are implemented in 2026-27. The expected passenger growth will only be slightly lower (less than one percentage point) than if rates were to increase in line forecast RPI, per the standard annual uprating. The government is committed to securing the long-term future of the aviation sector in the UK and recognises the benefits of the connectivity it creates between the UK and the rest of the world.

Whether her Department has made an assessment of the potential impact of changes to Agricultural and Business Property Relief on the economy of the East of England.

The Government believes its reforms to agricultural property relief and business property relief from 6 April 2026 get the balance right between supporting farms and businesses, and fixing the public finances. The reforms reduce the inheritance tax advantages available to owners of agricultural and business assets, but still mean those assets will be taxed at a much lower effective rate than most other assets. Despite a tough fiscal context, the Government will maintain very significant levels of relief from inheritance tax beyond what is available to others and compared to the position before 1992. Where inheritance tax is due, those liable for a charge can pay any liability on the relevant assets over 10 annual instalments, interest-free. Information from claims is not recorded to enable regional or national breakdowns of the number of estates expected to be affected. However, the Government has set out that the reforms are expected to result in up to 520 estates across the UK claiming agricultural property relief, including those also claiming business property relief, paying more inheritance tax in 2026-27. Almost three-quarters of estates claiming agricultural property relief, including those that also claim for business property relief, will not pay any more tax as a result of the changes in 2026-27, based on the latest available data. The Government has also set out that around 1,500 estates across the UK only claiming business property relief are expected to pay more inheritance tax in 2026-27, with around 1,000 of these expected to only hold shares designated as “not listed” on the markets of recognised stock exchanges, such as the Alternative Investment Market. The remaining 500 estates will include business assets from sectors across the economy that are eligible for business property relief. These reforms mean that around three-quarters of estates claiming business property relief in 2026-27 (excluding those estates only holding shares designated as “not listed”) will not pay any more inheritance tax in 2026-27. The reforms to agricultural property relief and business property relief are forecast to raise a combined £520 million in 2029-30. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility certified this costing at Autumn Budget 2024 and it does not expect the reforms to have a significant macroeconomic impact.

If she will make an assessment of the long-term economic benefits of permanently reducing the business rates multiplier for the (a) beer and (b) pub sectors.

To deliver our manifesto pledge, we intend to introduce permanently lower tax rates for retail, hospitality, and leisure (RHL) properties with rateable values below £500,000, from 2026-27. This permanent tax cut will ensure that RHL businesses benefit from much-needed certainty and support. Eligibility for the new RHL multipliers is intended to broadly reflect the scope of the existing RHL relief scheme, and will be set out in legislation later this year. Ahead of these changes being made, the Government recognises that business will need support in 2025/26. As such, we have extended the RHL relief for one year at 40 per cent up to a cash cap of £110,000 per business. Under the previous Government, RHL relief was due to end entirely in April 2025. By extending the relief, the Government has saved the average pub, with a ratable value of £16,800, over £3,300. Tax policy and legislation is not subject to the Better Regulation Framework Guidance, which requires an Impact Assessment to accompany policy decisions. Nevertheless, when the new multipliers are set at Budget 2025, HM Treasury intends to publish analysis of the effects of the new multiplier arrangements.

What steps her Department is taking to ensure that business rates reform supports regional economic growth in (a) rural and (b) coastal areas.

The Government is creating a fairer business rates system that protects the high street, supports investment and is fit for the 21st century. To ensure that key amenities are available, and that community assets are protected in rural areas, Rural Rates Relief provides 100% business rates relief for certain properties in eligible rural areas with populations below 3,000. To deliver our manifesto pledge, from 2026/27, we also intend to introduce permanently lower tax rates for high street retail, hospitality, and leisure (RHL) properties with rateable values (RVs) below £500,000. This permanent tax cut will ensure that they benefit from much-needed certainty and support. Ahead of these new multipliers coming into force, the Government prevented the current RHL business rates relief from ending in April 2025, extending it for one year at 40 per cent up to a cash cap of £110,000 per business. We also froze the small business multiplier. Taken together with Small Business Rates Relief (SBRR), this protects over a million properties from inflationary increases. As highlighted in the Transforming Business Rates Discussion Paper published at Autumn Budget 2024, the Government is interested in hearing stakeholders’ views on the extent to which the current system acts as a barrier to investment. The Government will be publishing an Interim Report summarising stakeholder feedback to date, and setting out a clear direction of travel for the business rates system.

If she will make an assessment of the potential merits of extending the eligibility criteria for the Help to Save scheme.

The Help to Save scheme promotes financial resilience among working people on low incomes by encouraging a regular, long-term savings habit and building a financial buffer to help people to plan and prepare for the future. The scheme is only available to working individuals in receipt of certain benefits. This ensures it is targeted at its intended population. The government has recently extended the eligibility criteria for the Help to Save scheme. From April 2025 it is available to all Universal Credit claimants in work, not just those earning over a certain amount. These changes mean that around 550,000 more people will be able to take advantage of the scheme, bringing the eligible population to 3 million.

How the year-on-year spending associated with the Chagos Islands deal will be funded.

Any financial obligations arising from the UK-Mauritius agreement on the Chagos Archipelago, including departmental budgetary responsibilities, will be managed responsibly within the government’s fiscal framework and reported in annual accounts in the usual way. Obligations within MOD and FCDO budgets have been agreed through the recently published Spending Review. No payments will be made until the treaty is legally binding.

What assessment she has made of the implications for her policies of UK hospitality's press release entitled, One third of hospitality businesses now operating at a loss, published 2 June 2025.

The Government is committed to supporting the hospitality sector. That is why we have launched a licensing taskforce to make recommendations to cut red tape and remove barriers to business growth that exist within the UK’s licensing framework. The industry-led Taskforce has shared its findings with the Government, and we aim to update publicly by the summer. The Government is also creating a fairer business rates system that protects the high street, supports investment, and is fit for the 21st century. From April 2026, the Government intends to introduce permanently lower tax rates for retail, hospitality, and leisure (RHL) properties with rateable values below £500,000. This permanent tax cut will ensure that the hospitality sector benefit from much-needed certainty and support. The rates for these new business rate multipliers will be set at Budget 2025 so that the Government can take into account the upcoming revaluation outcomes as well as the economic and fiscal context. We also recognise that RHL businesses will need support during the interim period for 2025/26, and so we are providing 40 per cent relief to RHL properties up to a cash cap of £110,000 per business. Without any government intervention, RHL relief would have ended entirely in April 2025, creating a cliff-edge for businesses.

If she will take steps to provide provide financial support for communities seeking to bring disused pubs back into use.

The Government recognises the important role pubs play on our high streets and in community spaces and we want to see them thrive.That is why we have funded a wide range of community assets, including pubs, through the Community Ownership Fund. On 23 December 2024, this Government announced the outcome of Round 4 of the Community Ownership Fund, the largest ever round to date which approved funds for 6 community pub projects.Through The Hospitality Support Scheme, we are working with Pub is the Hub and providing funds to help community pubs adapt to changing local needs, ensuring these vital social hubs continue delivering for their communities.As part of the English Devolution Bill, the Government will legislate to introduce a strong new ‘right to buy’ for valued community assets, such as empty shops, pubs and community spaces. This will empower local people to bring community spaces back into community ownership and end the blight of empty premises on our high streets. More details will be announced in due course.In addition, we will soon be publishing our Small Business Strategy, which will announce further measures to support small businesses in the pub and hospitality sector which will help revitalise high streets.