Critical minerals

Status / emerging findings

• China controls 91% of rare earth refining and 94% of permanent magnet manufacturing; has already weaponised export controls (October 2025); UK military production (Storm Shadow, anti-tank missiles) likely depends on Chinese minerals
• UK lithium demand projected to rise 5-fold by 2035 (32,000 to 157,000 tonnes); a one-year supply disruption could eliminate 583,000 EV units and cost 90,000 jobs by 2030
• China processes 80–90% of global battery cathode materials; the UK's critical minerals strategy recognises the 'midstream processing gap' but lacks integrated roadmap or Cabinet-level ownership
• UK battery research is world-class (lithium-sulphur, next-gen tech) but severely under-resourced: 500 researchers vs CATL's 22,000
• UK's critical minerals methodology treats criticality as a snapshot of current trade, excluding forecasting for future defence expansion—a potential blind spot

Why it matters

The UK cannot expand military production or meet net-zero targets without Chinese minerals—and China has shown it will use that leverage; this inquiry will shape whether the government invests in domestic refining capacity or international supply partnerships.

Tone arc

Opened methodological and analytical (how does the UK define criticality?), quickly shifted to alarm after the geopolitical and supply-chain exposure sessions in late April—tone hardened from procedural to urgent once witnesses detailed China's demonstrated willingness to restrict exports and the scale of UK military and EV sector dependency.

Key witnesses

James Kynge (Financial Times), Tom Baxter (mining analyst), Dr Kathryn Moore (critical minerals researcher), Caspar Rawles (battery/minerals expert), Professor Martin Freer (critical minerals expert), Dr Gavin Mudd (Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre), Dr Kathryn Goodenough (Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre), Jeff Townsend (industry representative)