New Forest East.
Conservative and Unionist Party MP Julian Lewis holds the seat on 38.5% of the vote.
1 Jun 2026
A near-total Conservative loyalist with one notable exception, Julian Lewis voted in favour of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill at Second Reading in November 2024 -- breaking with his party to back legislation creating a generational smoking ban. Beyond that single rebellion, he has voted consistently with the Conservative whip, including supporting a Privileges Committee referral for Keir Starmer over the Mandelson appointment and opposing government powers to direct pension fund investments. His most distinctive recent stance is an emphatic commitment to Lords scrutiny: he scores 100% on pro-lords-scrutiny votes and has repeatedly backed the upper chamber's amendments to the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill against government attempts to overturn them.
At 77% voting participation -- slightly below the Commons average -- Lewis is an active parliamentary debater rather than a pure division-lobby presence. His 613 contributions across 466 debates are dominated by defence (223 contributions), reflecting long-standing specialist interest in intelligence and security matters built up over nearly three decades in Parliament. He deviates from his party most notably on assisted dying, where he leans more against than the Conservative average, and on transport issues. His stance profile shows strong alignment with parliamentary scrutiny (95%) and business-friendly positions (91%), but very low alignment with workers' rights (6%) and progressive taxation (3%).
Locally, Lewis has been prominently active in opposing proposed boundary changes that would split the Waterside area from the New Forest -- writing to ministers, coordinating cross-party council opposition, and securing ongoing press coverage across the past year. He also led a Westminster Hall debate on stab-proof vests for prison officers in March 2026. No committee roles are currently recorded for him.
Ward-level direction-of-travel: who controls what, who flipped recently, who holds the line.
| Ward | Latest winner | Votes | Council | Last cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashurst Bramshaw Copythorne Netley Marsh(2 seats) | Tipp · Reilly | 1,993 | New Forest Con | May 2023 |
| Brockenhurst Denny Lodge | Adam William Parker | 671 | New Forest Con | May 2023 |
| Dibden Dibden Purlieu(2 seats) | Wade · Osborne | 1,899 | New Forest Con | May 2023 |
| Fawley Blackfield Calshot Langley(2 seats) | Alvey · Hartmann | 1,440 | New Forest Con | May 2023 |
| Forest Solent | Dan Poole | 554 | New Forest Con | May 2023 |
| Hardley Holbury North Blackfield(2 seats) | Glass · Armstrong | 856 | New Forest Con | May 2023 |
| Hythe Central(2 seats) | Wade · Dowd | 2,082 | New Forest Con | May 2023 |
| Hythe South(2 seats) | Clark · Cullen | 1,440 | New Forest Con | May 2023 |
| Lyndhurst Minstead | Hilary Brand | 577 | New Forest Con | May 2023 |
| Marchwood Eling(2 seats) | Mballa · Young | 1,714 | New Forest Con | May 2023 |
| Sway | Barry Rickman | 737 | New Forest Con | May 2023 |
| Totton Central(2 seats) | Murray · Sleep | 1,243 | New Forest Con | May 2023 |
| Totton North(3 seats) | Penny · Crisell · Penman | 2,642 | New Forest Con | May 2023 |
| Totton South(2 seats) | Rackham · Harrison | 1,599 | New Forest Con | May 2023 |
Source · Democracy Club · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (CC BY-SA 4.0)
The seat’s population is concentrated in Totton (25,709), with Hythe and Dibden Purlieu (20,179) as the second pole. Total population across named built-up areas: 90,775.
Source · ONS Built-Up Areas · Census 2021
| Settlement | Pop. | Class |
|---|---|---|
| Totton | 25,709 | large town |
| Hythe and Dibden Purlieu | 20,179 | town |
| Rural & dispersed | 14,217 | town |
| Holbury | 7,909 | town |
| Blackfield and Langley | 6,100 | town |
| Marchwood | 5,776 | town |
Headline indicators.
| Indicator | Local | National | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment rate | 56.1% | 57.1% | -2% |
| Owner-occupied | 75.0% | 63.1% | +19% |
| Private rented | 13.2% | 20.0% | -34% |
| Social rented | 11.8% | 16.8% | -30% |
Ethnicity.
Source · Census 2021
Population by age & sexCensus 2021 · 18 bands · click to expand
Source · Census 2021 (ONS) · % of usual residents; tick marks the median seat per band
Income tax contribution.
| Total income tax | £335m |
| Taxpayers | 51,000 |
| Median per taxpayer | £2,880 |
| Mean per taxpayer | £6,520 |
Source · HMRC SPI · ±8% confidence
Where the money flows back in.
This constituency is served by New Forest. Each council’s service spend, peer rank and supplier list lives on its own page — open from the meta block above or the compass strip below.
Move the income slider on My place to see income tax, NI, VAT and council tax against your earnings — the household lens.
Headline rate.
By category.
Source · data.police.uk · 3-month rate per 1,000 pop
2024 — full result.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julian LewisWON | Con | 17,412 | 38.5 |
| Sasjkia Otto | Lab | 8,917 | 19.7 |
| Roy Swales | Ref | 7,646 | 16.9 |
| Caroline Rackham | LD | 7,198 | 15.9 |
| Simon King | Grn | 3,118 | 6.9 |
| Mad Hatter | Ind | 529 | 1.2 |
| Andrew Knight | Ind | 410 | 0.9 |
Turnout 45,230
Prior contests.
| Year | Winner | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Julian Lewis | Con | 64.5 |
| 2017 | Julian Lewis | Con | 62.6 |
| 2015 | Julian Lewis | Con | 56.3 |
| 2010 | Lewis, Julian | Con | 52.9 |
Sources, methods & last update
2023 boundary review
DCLEAPIL v1.0 (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Census 2021
National avg over 575 seats
±8% confidence
LSOA-aggregated · rolling 12mo