Hornchurch and Upminster.
Conservative and Unionist Party MP Julia Lopez holds the seat on 32.5% of the vote.
1 Jun 2026
A consistent party-line voter, Julia Lopez has spent recent weeks performing standard opposition duties -- backing Conservative amendments to the King's Speech, voting to block the Steel Industry (Nationalisation) Bill, and supporting the referral of Keir Starmer to the Privileges Committee over the Mandelson appointment. None of these represent departures from her party; she has not cast a single rebel vote since the 2024 election. Her most distinctive recent vote was opposing the government's reserve power to direct pension fund investments, a provision the Lords rejected three times before the Commons restored it.
Her voting participation sits at 73% -- somewhat below the Commons average -- and her stance profile is strongly Conservative in shape: near-total alignment with pro-business and anti-employer-NI-increase positions, and consistent opposition to workers' rights and progressive taxation measures. Her speeches, spread across 111 contributions in 56 debates, concentrate on economy and jobs, crime, education, and immigration. She deviates from her party's average on armed forces welfare votes, backing that position around 20 percentage points less often than her colleagues, though the reasons are unclear from available data.
Outside Westminster, Lopez's local profile is active. She led a successful campaign to save Harold Hill Post Office from closure, has hosted eleven job and training fairs at the Queen's Theatre, lobbied Health Secretary Wes Streeting directly on A&E conditions at Queen's Hospital, and formally opposed a contested Rainham quarry development. Local news coverage over the past 90 days is high-volume but broadly neutral across housing, local government, and crime stories. She holds no committee seats in the current Parliament.
Ward-level direction-of-travel: who controls what, who flipped recently, who holds the line.
| Ward | Latest winner | Votes | Council | Last cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cranham(3 seats) | Ford · Tyler · Tyler | 7,435 | Havering Con | May 2026 |
| Emerson Park(2 seats) | Godwin · Garrard | 3,010 | Havering Con | May 2022 |
| Gooshays(3 seats) | Prince · Tyler · Whitton | 4,991 | Havering Con | May 2026 |
| Hacton(2 seats) | Morgon · Whitney | 4,439 | Havering Con | May 2022 |
| Harold Wood(3 seats) | Eagling · Wise · Goode | 5,777 | Havering Con | May 2022 |
| Heaton(3 seats) | Walker · Darvill · Anderson | 3,620 | Havering Con | May 2022 |
| St Andrews(3 seats) | Cowie · Brown · Attree | 6,581 | Havering Con | May 2026 |
| Upminster(3 seats) | Wilkins · Fisher · Ford | 7,944 | Havering Con | May 2026 |
Source · Democracy Club · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (CC BY-SA 4.0)
The seat’s population is concentrated in Havering (105,073), with Rural & dispersed (1,705) as the second pole. Total population across named built-up areas: 106,778.
Source · ONS Built-Up Areas · Census 2021
| Settlement | Pop. | Class |
|---|---|---|
| Havering | 105,073 | city |
| Rural & dispersed | 1,705 | village |
Headline indicators.
| Indicator | Local | National | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment rate | 58.4% | 57.1% | +2% |
| Owner-occupied | 71.3% | 63.1% | +13% |
| Private rented | 13.1% | 20.0% | -35% |
| Social rented | 15.5% | 16.8% | -8% |
Ethnicity.
Source · Census 2021
Population by age & sexCensus 2021 · 18 bands · click to expand
Source · Census 2021 (ONS) · % of usual residents; tick marks the median seat per band
Income tax contribution.
| Total income tax | £478m |
| Taxpayers | 56,000 |
| Median per taxpayer | £3,740 |
| Mean per taxpayer | £8,600 |
Source · HMRC SPI · ±8% confidence
Where the money flows back in.
This constituency is served by Havering. Each council’s service spend, peer rank and supplier list lives on its own page — open from the meta block above or the compass strip below.
Move the income slider on My place to see income tax, NI, VAT and council tax against your earnings — the household lens.
Headline rate.
By category.
Source · data.police.uk · 3-month rate per 1,000 pop
2024 — full result.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julia LopezWON | Con | 15,260 | 32.5 |
| Nicholas Palmer | Ref | 13,317 | 28.4 |
| Sunny Brar | Lab | 12,939 | 27.6 |
| Melanie Collins | Grn | 2,620 | 5.6 |
| Ian Sanderson | LD | 2,381 | 5.1 |
| David Warren Durant | Ind | 394 | 0.8 |
Turnout 46,911
Prior contests.
| Year | Winner | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Julia Lopez | Con | 65.8 |
| 2017 | Julia Dockerill | Con | 60.2 |
| 2015 | Angela Watkinson | Con | 49.0 |
| 2010 | Watkinson, Angela | Con | 51.5 |
Sources, methods & last update
2023 boundary review
DCLEAPIL v1.0 (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Census 2021
National avg over 575 seats
±8% confidence
LSOA-aggregated · rolling 12mo