The placeConstituency · South East · Electorate 79,478 · 2023 boundaries

Hamble Valley.

Conservative and Unionist Party MP Paul Holmes holds the seat on 36.4% of the vote — a split-council geography across 3 councils.

Member of ParliamentPaul Holmes · Conservative and Unionist Party
CouncilsFareham · Eastleigh · Winchester
Boundary set2023
ONS codeE14001263
Electorate · 2024
79.5k
Registered to vote
2024 GE — winner
36.4%
Conservative and Unionist Party · +8.9pp over LD
Settlements
10
Largest: Locks Heath
Crime · per 1k pop · 3mo
14.1
data.police.uk · 12mo rolling
Dispatch
3 Jun 2026

A reliable Conservative vote with active local roots, Paul Holmes has spent recent weeks following his party's line through the King's Speech debates -- supporting opposition amendments criticising Labour's legislative programme and voting against the government's agenda -- and backed the motion to refer Prime Minister Starmer to the Privileges Committee over the Mandelson appointment. He voted against the government's power to direct pension fund investments, siding with Lords amendments that the government overrode. None of these were rebel votes; Holmes has voted with the Conservative majority on every recorded division, making him a 100% party-line MP.

His parliamentary participation sits at 75% -- slightly below the Commons average -- and his voting profile is consistent with mainstream Conservative positions: strongly pro-business (90%), anti-tax increases (93%), and supportive of Lords scrutiny and parliamentary oversight. He speaks frequently, with over 900 contributions across 172 debates, concentrating on local government, economy and jobs, housing, and fiscal policy. He deviates from his party's average on armed forces welfare, voting in that direction less often than most Conservative colleagues -- a gap of 24 percentage points.

Beyond Westminster, Holmes has been visibly active in Hamble Valley: lobbying against the closure of a local study centre, pressing for station lift upgrades for disabled passengers, opposing a quarry development at Hamble Airfield (unsuccessfully), and publicly challenging a major bank branch closure. Recent local news coverage is dominated by crime stories, though the sentiment across 43 articles over 90 days is close to neutral. He holds no current committee roles.

36.4%
Con vote · 2024 GE
3
Councils overlapping the seat
12
Wards · 12 councillors
§ 01The local picture — wards.12 wards · 12 councillors · 3 councils

Ward-level direction-of-travel: who controls what, who flipped recently, who holds the line. Each ward links to the council that runs it.

WardLatest winnerVotesCouncilLast cycle
Avenue Robert William Ellis1,226Fareham ConMay 2026
Botley Rupert Gregory Miles Kyrle1,378Eastleigh LDMay 2026
Bursledon Hound North Tonia Craig1,378Eastleigh LDMay 2026
Hamble Netley Prad Bains1,572Eastleigh LDMay 2026
Hedge End North Leigh John Hadaway1,298Eastleigh LDMay 2026
Hedge End South John Edward Shepherd1,634Eastleigh LDMay 2026
Hook With Warsash Frair Louise Burgess1,355Fareham ConMay 2026
Locks Heath Malcolm Roy Daniells1,286Fareham ConMay 2026
Park Gate Simon David Martin1,338Fareham ConMay 2026
Sarisbury Whiteley Ruth Alexandra Hall1,613Fareham ConMay 2026
Titchfield Common Andrew Michael John Murphy1,277Fareham ConMay 2026
Whiteley Shedfield Vivian Achwal1,112Winchester LDMay 2024

Source · Democracy Club · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (CC BY-SA 4.0)

§ 02Settlements.10 named places

The seat’s population is concentrated in Locks Heath (35,750), with Hedge End (23,281) as the second pole. Total population across named built-up areas: 103,672.

large-town 38,522town 57,656village 7,494

Source · ONS Built-Up Areas · Census 2021

SettlementPop.Class
Locks Heath35,750large town
Hedge End23,281town
Rural & dispersed10,410town
Whiteley9,649town
Netley7,388town
Bursledon6,928town
Showing 6 of 10·All 10 settlements
§ 03Demographics.Census 2021 · vs national avg

Headline indicators.

IndicatorLocalNationalΔ
Employment rate62.3%57.1%+9%
Owner-occupied76.7%63.1%+22%
Private rented13.7%20.0%-32%
Social rented9.6%16.8%-43%

Ethnicity.

White95.0%
Asian2.1%
Black0.7%
Mixed1.7%
Other0.4%

Source · Census 2021

Population by age & sexCensus 2021 · 18 bands · click to expand
Male 48.7% Female 51.3% Median seat
MaleAgeFemale
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
16-19
10-15
5-9
0-4

Source · Census 2021 (ONS) · % of usual residents; tick marks the median seat per band

§ 04Local economy.Income · tax · businesses · schools
Median income
£32,700
HMRC SPI · 2024
Mean income
£42,700
HMRC SPI · 2024
Businesses
5,715
VAT/PAYE-registered
Schools
36
27 primary · 4 secondary
GCSE pass
72.7%
Attainment 8: 49.8

Income tax contribution.

Total income tax£433m
Taxpayers58,000
Median per taxpayer£3,650
Mean per taxpayer£7,400

Source · HMRC SPI · ±8% confidence

Where the money flows back in.

For council finance & suppliers

This constituency is served by Fareham, Eastleigh and Winchester. Each council’s service spend, peer rank and supplier list lives on its own page — open from the meta block above or the compass strip below.

For household tax breakdown

Move the income slider on My place to see income tax, NI, VAT and council tax against your earnings — the household lens.

§ 05Recorded crime.data.police.uk · 12-month rolling

Headline rate.

Per 1k pop · 3mo
14.1
-32% vs national
Monthly avg / 1k
4.7
12-month rolling
Top category
Violence & sexual offences
41% of recorded crime

By category.

Violence & sexual offences5.7
Anti-social behaviour1.8
Shoplifting1.3
Public order1.0
Other theft0.9
Vehicle crime0.8
Criminal damage & arson0.8

Source · data.police.uk · 3-month rate per 1,000 pop

Showing 7 of 15·All 15 categories — full monthly trend & settlement breakdown
§ 06Election history.1 contest · created on 2023 boundaries

2024 — full result.

CandidateVotes%
Paul HolmesWONCon19,67136.4
Prad BainsLD14,86927.5
Devina PaulLab8,75316.2
Caroline GladwinRef8,21615.2
Kate NeedhamGrn2,3104.3
Binka GriffinInd1850.3

Turnout 54,004

Prior contests.

Created on the 2023 boundary review. 2024 General Election was the first contest on these boundaries.

Sources, methods & last update
Method The dispatch paragraphs are AI-generated from the public sources listed below. Every figure links to its source. If we’re wrong, please tell us — corrections within 48 hours.
BoundariesONS Open Geography Portal
2023 boundary review
Wards & councilsLGBCE · Democracy Club
DCLEAPIL v1.0 (CC BY-SA 4.0)
SettlementsONS Built-Up Areas
Census 2021
DemographicsONS · Nomis · Census 2021
National avg over 575 seats
Income & taxHMRC SPI
±8% confidence
SchoolsDfE · attainment data
Crimedata.police.uk
LSOA-aggregated · rolling 12mo
ElectionsElectoral Commission