Hamble Valley.
Conservative and Unionist Party MP Paul Holmes holds the seat on 36.4% of the vote — a split-council geography across 3 councils.
3 Jun 2026
A reliable Conservative vote with active local roots, Paul Holmes has spent recent weeks following his party's line through the King's Speech debates -- supporting opposition amendments criticising Labour's legislative programme and voting against the government's agenda -- and backed the motion to refer Prime Minister Starmer to the Privileges Committee over the Mandelson appointment. He voted against the government's power to direct pension fund investments, siding with Lords amendments that the government overrode. None of these were rebel votes; Holmes has voted with the Conservative majority on every recorded division, making him a 100% party-line MP.
His parliamentary participation sits at 75% -- slightly below the Commons average -- and his voting profile is consistent with mainstream Conservative positions: strongly pro-business (90%), anti-tax increases (93%), and supportive of Lords scrutiny and parliamentary oversight. He speaks frequently, with over 900 contributions across 172 debates, concentrating on local government, economy and jobs, housing, and fiscal policy. He deviates from his party's average on armed forces welfare, voting in that direction less often than most Conservative colleagues -- a gap of 24 percentage points.
Beyond Westminster, Holmes has been visibly active in Hamble Valley: lobbying against the closure of a local study centre, pressing for station lift upgrades for disabled passengers, opposing a quarry development at Hamble Airfield (unsuccessfully), and publicly challenging a major bank branch closure. Recent local news coverage is dominated by crime stories, though the sentiment across 43 articles over 90 days is close to neutral. He holds no current committee roles.
Ward-level direction-of-travel: who controls what, who flipped recently, who holds the line. Each ward links to the council that runs it.
| Ward | Latest winner | Votes | Council | Last cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avenue | Robert William Ellis | 1,226 | Fareham Con | May 2026 |
| Botley | Rupert Gregory Miles Kyrle | 1,378 | Eastleigh LD | May 2026 |
| Bursledon Hound North | Tonia Craig | 1,378 | Eastleigh LD | May 2026 |
| Hamble Netley | Prad Bains | 1,572 | Eastleigh LD | May 2026 |
| Hedge End North | Leigh John Hadaway | 1,298 | Eastleigh LD | May 2026 |
| Hedge End South | John Edward Shepherd | 1,634 | Eastleigh LD | May 2026 |
| Hook With Warsash | Frair Louise Burgess | 1,355 | Fareham Con | May 2026 |
| Locks Heath | Malcolm Roy Daniells | 1,286 | Fareham Con | May 2026 |
| Park Gate | Simon David Martin | 1,338 | Fareham Con | May 2026 |
| Sarisbury Whiteley | Ruth Alexandra Hall | 1,613 | Fareham Con | May 2026 |
| Titchfield Common | Andrew Michael John Murphy | 1,277 | Fareham Con | May 2026 |
| Whiteley Shedfield | Vivian Achwal | 1,112 | Winchester LD | May 2024 |
Source · Democracy Club · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (CC BY-SA 4.0)
The seat’s population is concentrated in Locks Heath (35,750), with Hedge End (23,281) as the second pole. Total population across named built-up areas: 103,672.
Source · ONS Built-Up Areas · Census 2021
| Settlement | Pop. | Class |
|---|---|---|
| Locks Heath | 35,750 | large town |
| Hedge End | 23,281 | town |
| Rural & dispersed | 10,410 | town |
| Whiteley | 9,649 | town |
| Netley | 7,388 | town |
| Bursledon | 6,928 | town |
Headline indicators.
| Indicator | Local | National | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment rate | 62.3% | 57.1% | +9% |
| Owner-occupied | 76.7% | 63.1% | +22% |
| Private rented | 13.7% | 20.0% | -32% |
| Social rented | 9.6% | 16.8% | -43% |
Ethnicity.
Source · Census 2021
Population by age & sexCensus 2021 · 18 bands · click to expand
Source · Census 2021 (ONS) · % of usual residents; tick marks the median seat per band
Income tax contribution.
| Total income tax | £433m |
| Taxpayers | 58,000 |
| Median per taxpayer | £3,650 |
| Mean per taxpayer | £7,400 |
Source · HMRC SPI · ±8% confidence
Where the money flows back in.
This constituency is served by Fareham, Eastleigh and Winchester. Each council’s service spend, peer rank and supplier list lives on its own page — open from the meta block above or the compass strip below.
Move the income slider on My place to see income tax, NI, VAT and council tax against your earnings — the household lens.
Headline rate.
By category.
Source · data.police.uk · 3-month rate per 1,000 pop
2024 — full result.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul HolmesWON | Con | 19,671 | 36.4 |
| Prad Bains | LD | 14,869 | 27.5 |
| Devina Paul | Lab | 8,753 | 16.2 |
| Caroline Gladwin | Ref | 8,216 | 15.2 |
| Kate Needham | Grn | 2,310 | 4.3 |
| Binka Griffin | Ind | 185 | 0.3 |
Turnout 54,004
Prior contests.
Created on the 2023 boundary review. 2024 General Election was the first contest on these boundaries.
Sources, methods & last update
2023 boundary review
DCLEAPIL v1.0 (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Census 2021
National avg over 575 seats
±8% confidence
LSOA-aggregated · rolling 12mo