Committee publication · Correspondence · 12 February 2025
Correspondence from the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority relating to 18 December oral evidence session: supplementary evidence, dated 6 February 2025
From: Energy Security and Net Zero Committee
Inquiry: Work of the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero
Summary
The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority provides supplementary evidence to the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee following December 2024 oral testimony. The letter addresses six key questions on geological disposal facility capacity for new nuclear waste, cost estimation methodology, R&D outcomes, technology-driven efficiency gains, optimism bias reduction, and major project performance improvements at Sellafield.
Key findings
- GDF programme designed with flexibility to accommodate projected waste volumes from 16–24 GW of new nuclear build; final volumes subject to uncertainty pending reactor type, deployment dates, and operating decisions.
- 2019 GDF cost estimate (£20.3bn–£53.3bn) expressed in 2017/18 values excluding inflation per HMG Green Book rules; revised business case due end of 2025/26.
- NDA R&D investment yields benefit-to-cost ratio of 3.1–4.3 (2022 independent review); supply chain organisations funded by NDA have patented technologies, with one company leveraging £165k NDA investment into £1.4M additional government funding and over 1000% return.
- Quadruped robots at Sellafield reduced task cost by 50% and time by 75% (18 months to 4 months); drones cut external inspection timescale from four months to several days and costs from £100k to £1.5k; potential group-wide savings projected at £100M+ with decades of project time recovered.
- Reference Class Forecasting implemented across NDA from 2020; retrospective analysis confirms legacy projects at Sellafield would have benefited from RCF application; recent NAO report notes four of five projects started since 2018 slightly behind schedule but under cost, with two receiving 'Green' Infrastructure and Projects Authority ratings.
Tone
FactualTopics
Key actors
Bill Esterson MP, David Peattie, Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, Sellafield Limited, National Audit Office, Infrastructure and Projects Authority
Notable line
“… by three-quarters (18 months to 4 months). Potential savings across the NDA group are predicted to be over £100M with decades of project time saved.”
Key Quotes
“The GDF programme has specifically been designed to build in flexibility regarding total capacity / size to take account of changes in anticipated final waste volumes.”
“In line with HMG Green book rules inflation was not included in these figures or in the NAO 2022 report from which these numbers were taken.”
“The application of robots for a decommissioning activity at Sellafield reduced costs of previous approaches by half (£1M to £0.5M) and time by three-quarters”
“Costs for major projects of the nature that Sellafield Limited is typically dealing with that require first of a kind engineering, are notoriously difficult to predict.”
“I hope we can facilitate a visit for you and your members to one of our sites in the near future, and in the meantime if you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.”
Source · parliament.uk record ↗