Committee publication · Correspondence · 26 February 2025
Correspondence from Professor Steve Thomas, Emeritus Professor of Energy Policy, University of Greenwich relating to 20 November 2024 oral evidence session, dated January 2025
From: Energy Security and Net Zero Committee
Inquiry: Work of the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero
Summary
Professor Steve Thomas challenges claims made by Simon Bowen to the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee that UAE's Barakah and China's Taishan nuclear projects demonstrate successful international comparators to UK nuclear builds. Thomas presents published data showing both projects experienced substantial delays and cost overruns, contradicting Bowen's assertion that they were delivered on time and cost, and argues the nuclear industry avoids acknowledging fundamental technology problems.
Key findings
- Barakah reactors took approximately 75% longer to build than the initial 5-year forecast per reactor, with no evidence of improvement in construction time across successive units, contrary to claims that the project became progressively more efficient.
- Taishan construction took approximately 2.5 times longer than China's expected 46-month schedule, with the French Cour des Comptes reporting a 60% cost increase compared to forecast budget and subsequent operational difficulties including extended shutdowns.
- Fixed-price contracts for nuclear projects are rare and represent extreme risk to vendors; Areva (France, 2016) and Westinghouse (USA, 2017) both collapsed partly due to agreeing fixed-price terms for nuclear plants.
- Taishan reactor 1 experienced poor operating performance with extended shutdowns (July 2021–August 2022, January–December 2023) and did not operate satisfactorily for three years, with unit 2 showing only mediocre performance.
- Thomas argues the nuclear industry and government avoid acknowledging fundamental technology problems, instead blaming planning inefficiency and regulatory processes, preventing rigorous analysis of actual causes of delays and cost escalation.
Tone
CriticalTopics
Key actors
Professor Steve Thomas, Simon Bowen, Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC), KEPCO (Korean Company), Électricité de France (EDF), French Cour des Comptes, Westinghouse, Areva
Notable line
“Until the apparent problems with the technology are admitted by government and the nuclear industry and a rigorous analysis of the problems that are causing delays and cost escalation …”
Key Quotes
“It was a difficult first build, but they became very good at it.”
“Hinkley is two years behind Taishan—one year for covid and one year for engineering changes, and those are both massive lessons learned.”
“On average, the reactors took about 75% longer to build than forecast and there is no evidence of improvement in construction time with each successive unit”
“The Taishan 1 and Taishan 2 EPR reactors were commissioned in China in 2018 and 2019, five years behind schedule and with a 60% cost increase compared to the forecast budget.”
“This narrative suggests that it is inefficient planning and regulatory processes and indecisive governments that are at the root of problems with nuclear power plant construction projects.”
Source · parliament.uk record ↗