Committee publication · Correspondence · 11 February 2026
Letter from the Chair of the Climate Change Committee, Nigel Topping CMG, relating to Oral Evidence given to the Environmental Audit Committee, 7 January
From: Environmental Audit Committee
Inquiry: The Seventh Carbon Budget
Summary
Nigel Topping, Chair of the Climate Change Committee, writes to clarify the Committee's advice on the Seventh Carbon Budget (CB7), following oral evidence to the Environmental Audit Committee on 7 January 2026. The letter addresses concerns about the Committee's single-pathway approach, technology readiness, biomass assumptions, behaviour change, and investment costs, defending the feasibility and evidence base of the recommended 535 MtCO2e carbon budget.
Key findings
- CB7 recommends a 535 MtCO2e limit for 2038–2042 (87% below 1990 levels), chosen as a single pathway because solutions in surface transport, buildings, and industry now favour electrification, with costs falling and global deployment at scale.
- Overall cost of meeting the Balanced Pathway is approximately £4 billion per year on average (0.2% GDP), with average investment of £26 billion annually offset by £22 billion in annual operating savings; net saving of £35 billion projected by 2050.
- Early-stage technologies (direct air capture, synthetic SAF, BECCS) are included only at Technology Readiness Level 6 or above and are not relied upon as sole solutions; 60% of emissions reductions to 2040 come from electrification using proven TRL 9+ technologies.
- Behaviour change accounts for 22% of emissions reductions by 2040, grounded in peer-reviewed evidence and UK consumer data; citizens' panel testing found support provided adequate government support, information, and affordable alternatives are available.
- Typical household energy and driving bills projected to be £700 less in 2050 than 2025; decarbonisation would reduce household energy bill sensitivity to gas price spikes by 15-fold, and avoided fossil fuel imports would be worth £45 billion in 2050.
Tone
ProceduralTopics
climate-policycarbon-budgetsdecarbonisationenergy-securitypublic-finance
Key actors
Nigel Topping CMG, Emma Pinchbeck, Toby Perkins MP, Climate Change Committee, Environmental Audit Committee, UK Parliament
Notable line
“60% of the emissions reductions from today to 2040 come from electrification of demand in key sectors including buildings, industry, and transport.”
Key Quotes
“Our recommended level for the Seventh Carbon Budget, a limit on the UK's greenhouse gas emissions over the five-year period 2038 to 2042, is 535 MtCO 2 e, including emissions from international aviation and shipping. This is 87% below 1990 levels.”
“The choice to base our advice on a single modelled pathway partly reflects our assessment that the best way forward in several areas is now clearer than it was at the time of our last advice”
“In almost all parts of the key end-use sectors of surface transport, buildings, and industry, electrification – enabled by rapid decarbonisation and expansion of the electricity system – is now the clear preferred technology for decarbonisation.”
“… the overall cost of meeting the Balanced Pathway is estimated to be around £4 billion per year on average between 2025 and 2050 (relative to the baseline). This translates to around 0.2% of GDP.”
“In the Balanced Pathway, average household energy bills in 2040 would be 15 times less sensitive to a spike in gas prices like the one we had in 2022 than the no further action baseline.”
“… we only include technologies that are expected to become sufficiently established to reach large-scale operation or adoption in the UK before 2050. • We use the internationally recognised system of technology readiness levels (TRLs) to determine the level of technology establishment.”
“60% of the emissions reductions from today to 2040 come from electrification of demand in key sectors including buildings, industry, and transport. Most of the key technologies required in these areas are already at TRL 9 or above, meaning they are proven technologies that are ready to be deployed at scale.”
“Behaviour change is included in our modelling. Demand measures make up 22% of emissions reduction by 2040. Around half of these emissions reductions are from measures to increase resource and/or energy efficiency, such as home insulation, more efficient use of resources in industry, and improved efficiencies of high-carbon technologies.”
Source · parliament.uk record ↗