Speeches by McEvoy.

“Ms Curtice, you just said that the changes to PIP will result in an 18% drop in the income of recipients. Can you elaborate on that? PIP is not means-tested, and some people are in work, so I do not understand how you could say that a fixed amount of money would equate to 18%.”

“For your organisation, obviously there is some significant missing data from the analysis that you have made, so why make it?”

“Right. So when you saw the reforms that were outlined in the White Paper, the Green Paper and the spring statement, was there anything missing that you would have liked to see as an organisation—anything that you were screaming at the telly that you wished to see to help support people back into work or to balance the …”

“What about changes to the broader welfare system? Rather than changes to the Government’s decisions, is there anything that you would have liked to see reformed?”

“Okay. So you agree with the changes to eligibility and you agree with the universal credit rebalancing—”

“Yes; we don’t know yet. Okay. I think that it says in an extract from your analysis that you have previously called for the same rebalancing as the DWP did in its Green Paper. Was there anything else that you were pleased to see?”

“Okay, thank you. Mr Johnson, this is your last appearance before the Committee, so I will give you free rein to tell us what you liked about the spring statement and the changes to welfare. What would you support?”

“Just to bring it back to welfare, is there anything that you—either personally or as an organisation lead at the IFS—have been calling for over time that you would have liked to see being reformed in the welfare changes that we are bringing in?”

“Just a final question: for clarity, what were you saying about the two-child benefit cap?”

“And on that, can you give us your analysis on double-counting in that initial impact assessment, on how those things will interact, and on the severity for people with lifelong conditions and how that will interact with it as well, please?”

“We all watched your webinar, and you outlined the three risks facing the country and the economy as productivity, interest rates and global trade. We will just dig a bit deeper into your productivity analysis. In chart 1.1 of the EFO we see the trend productivity level graph. I think it is accepted that productivity ha…”

“Obviously, you said that population growth is half a million higher, and that brings down our productivity level, which is GDP divided by the workforce. What are those people doing, and why have they not been working at a level that would have brought the productivity level up? Is the half a million all immigration? Wh…”

“We are saying that productivity is going to increase by the end of the forecast, but it is permanently below the October forecast. I just want to dig a bit deeper into why it will be permanently lower.”

“Does anybody else on the panel have anything to add on that productivity point?”

“Just a final question from me on that, is our current productivity measure fit for purpose? We are making a lot of national policies that are significantly impacting people’s lives based on this productivity puzzle. What do you think we could do as a Committee, or as a Government, to improve how we are measuring produc…”

“Just a quick one from me. Going back to GDP and the way in which we measure productivity, household expenditure is the largest section of GDP. Is the productivity problem linked to the cost of living crisis, and the cost of living crisis scarring? We know wages are increasing but it will take a bit of time before peopl…”

“I want to ask about the 800,000 figure. I thought your 2024 welfare trends report was a fascinating read—I read it a few times to get my head around it. It explained that the increases in the number of claimants often come from claimants transitioning from legacy benefit systems, and how the numbers seem to be higher b…”

“I thought it was very interesting that chart 3 of the report said that 20% were new claimants, and that the biggest significant change in the increase from 2018-19 to 2023-24 was due to the lack of drop-offs. Could you elaborate a bit on that?”

“I would be interested in that. When you speak to people in receipt of any of these benefits, they don’t say it is an easy process. It is a very complicated, difficult and strenuous process, especially if you are disabled or unwell. Can you clarify two things? You just made a point about the financial incentive from the…”

“Finally, just to be 100% clear, in your projections, where you have scored the welfare changes, on the trajectory of increased cases you have not included legacy cases going into the system—the transition from the old system to the new system.”