Written questions by Rankin.

What estimates her Department has made of the potential effect of increases in indirect taxation on the rate of inflation, with particular reference to the impact of increases in tobacco duty; and if she will make an assessment of the potential implications for her policies of the Institute for Fiscal Studies' estimate that cumulative increases in indirect taxation since the last Budget have added 0.4 percentage points to the current inflation rate.

Forecasting the economy, including the effect of Government policy decisions on inflation, is the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The OBR set out its assessment of policy measures in its Autumn Budget 2024 forecast and will update this analysis, drawing on the latest outturn data, at its next forecast next week on 26 November. The Chancellor has asked departments to prioritise reducing inflation when developing policies for the Autumn Budget, ensuring decisions support stability and long-term growth.

Whether she has considered the potential merits of moving the uprating of excise duty from RPI to CPI to help reduce inflation.

I refer the Hon. Member to the answer given on 13 November 2025 to PQ UIN 88538.

Whether (a) her Department and (b) the Office for Budget Responsibility has made an assessment of the potential impact of levels of tobacco duty on smoking prevalence statistics.

Tobacco duty aims to both raise revenue and reduce harm to public health by discouraging smoking. High duty rates make tobacco less affordable and are a proven way to reduce smoking prevalence and have helped reduce the percentage of adult smokers in the UK from 26% in 2000 to 11.9% in 2023. The ONS survey on adult smoking habits 2023 can be found here. Adult smoking habits in the UK - Office for National Statistics

What assessment her Department has made of the potential impact of the tobacco excise regime on smoking prevalence since 2021.

Tobacco duty aims to both raise revenue and reduce harm to public health by discouraging smoking. High duty rates make tobacco less affordable and are a proven way to reduce smoking prevalence and have helped reduce the percentage of adult smokers in the UK from 26% in 2000 to 11.9% in 2023. The ONS survey on adult smoking habits 2023 can be found here. Adult smoking habits in the UK - Office for National Statistics

If she will make it her policy to (a) reduce and (b) freeze tobacco excise duty.

At Autumn Budget 2024, the Government renewed the commitment to a tobacco duty escalator, which increases duty by 2 per cent above RPI inflation at each Budget, until the end of the current Parliament. This is part of the Government’s focus on health prevention and to continue our drive to reduce smoking prevalence.

Whether she has considered moving the uprating of excise duty from Retail Price Index to Consumer Prices Index.

The Government confirms tax rates and thresholds annually. In some cases, reflecting the government’s economic and fiscal objectives, they are uprated to account for inflation. The Office for National Statistics, regulated by the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA), produces a range of inflation statistics. The most widely used estimates of inflation, both by Government and the private sector, are the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and the Retail Prices Index (RPI) The Government agrees with UKSA that RPI has flaws, and at times overstates and at times understates changes in prices. RPI’s shortcomings are well-documented. In 2013, as a result of flaws in the way it is measured, RPI lost its status as a National Statistic. Since 2010 the Government has been reducing its use of RPI and has committed to not introduce any new uses of RPI. Further moves away from RPI are complex and more work is required to understand the costs and benefits of any changes.

Whether she has made an assessment of the potential impact of UK stamp duty on the level of share trading volumes in Metlen.

Stamp Duty and Stamp Duty Reserve Tax are forecast to raise up to £5.1bn per year combined to help fund vital public services. The framework of the taxes contains many reliefs and exemptions which are designed to provide a boost to growth, liquidity, and trading volumes in UK listed companies. The government keeps this area of tax under review.

If she will make an assessment of the potential impact of the proposals on the harmonisation of gambling duties outlined in the consultation entitled The Tax Treatment of Remote Gambling, last updated on 6 May 2025, on the British horseracing industry.

The Government is consulting on proposals to simplify the current gambling tax system by merging the three current taxes that cover remote (including online) gambling into one – reducing complexity. The Government is committed to engaging with all stakeholders, including representatives of the horseracing industry, as part of the consultation process. The Government recognises the significant cultural and economic value of British horseracing, both as a major sporting tradition and as an important contributor to rural economies across the country. The Government encourages all interested parties to participate in the consultation to ensure the interests of British horseracing industry are fully considered.

What assessment she has made of the potential impact of the proposals outlined in the consultation entitled The Tax Treatment of Remote Gambling, last updated on 6 May 2025, on black market gambling.

The Government is consulting on proposals to simplify the current gambling tax system by merging the three current taxes that cover remote (including online) gambling into one. If any changes are made to gambling duties at a future Budget following the consultation, they will be accompanied by a Tax Information and Impact Note which will set out the expected impacts.

Whether her Department has plans to conduct a fiscal impact analysis of trends in the level of Indefinite leave to remain grants on the economy.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) produces forecasts of the UK’s economic and fiscal position.The government sets its fiscal policy on the basis of the official OBR forecast.Box 4.5 of the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook published in March 2024 sets out estimated impacts of migration on the fiscal forecast. As the minimum residency required to move to indefinite leave to remain is currently at least 5 years, this falls outside the forecast period. As the OBR says in the March 2024 EFO. ”However, our forecasts will capture the cost of any immigrants from previous cohorts who now claim welfare through Indefinite leave to remain grants because their claims will be included in the outturn data that provides the starting point for our forecast”.