Speeches by Baldwin.

“I have a final question. The salary-sacrifice measures in relation to pensions were the second-biggest item in terms of the tax increases in this Budget. Will that have a long-term impact on your medium-term fiscal forecasts and the amount that we save for pensions in this country?”

“Yes or no.”

“Finally, on a point that we were talking about earlier, the net migration mix, we heard that you do not have a lot of information yet. You also told us, in your report at the Budget last year, that the measures that the Chancellor put in place at that time regarding the non-domicile regime were highly uncertain. I thin…”

“Very good. I have just a couple more. On the Employment Rights Bill, am I right in my understanding that you have not yet incorporated any impact of the Employment Rights Bill in your forecast?”

“So the Budget did not increase growth. It did not change the productivity of the UK economy. Specifically on NHS productivity, because the spending on the NHS is such a big line item in the Budget, you have, in previous reports, told us that NHS productivity has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels. Is that still th…”

“Another quick one, trying for a yes or no. In aggregate, did the measures in this week’s Budget improve productivity in the UK, Mr Josephs?”

“In short, “higher taxes mean lower growth” is what I heard you say there, Professor Miles.”

“Yes.”

“I am going to try to elicit some yes/no answers. You have obviously covered a lot of ground so far, and there are a few last topics where I would just like to get a yes or no from you. First, the Chancellor has told us repeatedly about the importance of growth. In aggregate, did the measures announced in this week’s Bu…”

“Is that something you have asked for, Mr Josephs?”

“One of the characteristics of that recent data was the number of people leaving the country. Is there any data on the tax take for people who are leaving versus the tax revenues from the people coming in? Are you able to make any assessment of that at this point?”

“Yes—it was false.”

“But further to that exact question, given the revealed preference that we have seen during this Budget process of the Treasury wishing to spin various different aspects of the economic and fiscal information they receive from the Office for Budget Responsibility, does this change to one forecast a year not make the mar…”

“My point, Professor Miles, is that between the time when we were told by the Chancellor of the bad news and the moment on 14 November when the Treasury had to clarify to the gilt market—because it had reacted so badly—that there was good news in the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts, the impression that was cr…”

“Sorry to keep pushing on this, but I think it is an important point. If the Chancellor says one thing on 4 November about the bad news in the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast, but does not mention some of the offsetting good news, potentially during that window—maybe starting on 4 November, but she certainly h…”

“The market moved when the information was confirmed to the markets.”

“But there was potentially a false market in gilt prices in the 14-day window between 31 October, when you gave your final numbers, and the moment when it emanated from an organisation—which you are saying is not the Office for Budget Responsibility—that there was some good news in your forecast that would offset the pr…”

“Thank you for clarifying some of this. It seems that the most damaging moment in the whole period was the evening of 13 November and the morning of 14 November, because the gilt market moved very dramatically when it first heard that there might be some positive news in the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast, wh…”

“The leak of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s economic and financial forecasts on Wednesday was obviously shocking, and it has rightly come up with a swift and complete report on how that happened. The partial information and the leaks from the Treasury over the many months in the run-up to the Budget were, in my …”

“I am looking forward to the Minister’s winding-up speech at the end of the debate, and I will not give way at the moment. Given the skulduggery that the Treasury seems to have engaged in during the run-up to this Budget, the lingering impression will be that the spectre of further tax hikes looms. The floating of the i…”