Speeches by Dean.

“Ms Curtice, I want to come back to your comment about the Chancellor being able to take a penalty if the referee does not give it; I am enjoying the football analogies today. Is this actually a question of bravery of political conviction of Chancellors and Governments more generally having a growth plan and saying, “Re…”

“We cannot even agree on that.”

“I bring to the House this week a matter that I have raised with the Leader of the House before: fraud. As he knows, fraud is a devastating crime that can destroy people’s life savings and plunge them into debt, and it is now the most frequently experienced crime in Britain. On Monday, the Government released their frau…”

“You may also have heard some commentary about immigration figures, which have recently been revised. Have you any views on what real immigration and emigration activity is now? What impact do you foresee it having on the public finances? If I can squeeze in another question, do you know what the medium and long-term im…”

“Ms Miller, at the time when the employment national insurance contribution changes were announced, the OBR baked into its forecasts some effect on the labour market. It sounds as though we might already be beyond that point. It might also persist for longer. What impact is that likely to have on the public finances and…”

“We were talking about unemployment in the previous session. There are still some question marks over how cyclical we think the problem is. Typically, we may see a spike in taxation or in wages that comes out in the wash over time, but it feels as though it might be stickier this time, not just because of the effects of…”

“You have anticipated my final question.”

“If we talk about people coming the other way, people who are entering the country, is it true that they are broadly speaking similarly skilled to those already in the UK but of a generally younger age profile?”

“You made the assumption that people leaving will be a representative sample. Is that because you have data in the past showing that is generally true, if you look back far enough? People will wonder whether people are more likely to move overseas at retirement, during their working lives or when they have families. Is …”

“That is clear and it makes sense that you would change the modelling accordingly. The issue I am trying to unpick here is that it has been reported that lots of people are fleeing the country all of a sudden, perhaps because of the policies of this Government, and they are high net worth or high earning people. You are…”

“The OBR has lowered its forecast on net inward migration between now and 2030. First, I read that there was also a methodological change, so how much of that change is real or just a result of the way you are now counting? Secondly, if it is true that more people are leaving the UK, what assessment have you made of the…”

“Thank you. I am going to move on to immigration.”

“I guess what I am putting to you is: do you think this particular change to employer national insurance has potentially had an effect on youth unemployment, because it hits those industries that tend to employ young people in their first jobs?”

“Just to probe a little further on youth employment before I move on, it was not just the cost of the labour going up in ordinary terms—taxes and the minimum wage going up—but the threshold change, which particularly affected any business that employed a high number of people on low wages. Is that correct? Hospitality a…”

“You have talked about planning reforms and house building as key to the growth plan, which is welcome, but the OBR has said, for the second year running, the Government looks set to miss its targets. How important is the 1.5 million homes target to the public finances?”

“Can I put to you something that came up at a joint Committee session with MHCLG? We asked whether the Treasury did any analysis of value for money for the taxpayer where local authorities build council homes directly. We understand that there will probably be analysis of the rental income over a 30, 40 or 50-year perio…”

“Because those returns happen over the very long term—they are usually decades away—do you think that the way you currently manage the public finances is able to realise those benefits?”

“I agree with your overall assessment that just adding people is not particularly useful in relation to GDP, but my question was about how they tend to be more likely to be of working age and to have a similar skill profile to the British population. With the ageing population, even if you train up all the available you…”

“The reason I ask the question is that the overall rhetoric coming from the Government, and particularly the Home Office, is that we just want to drive the immigration figures down, and there is a built-in assumption that immigration is causing problems for our economy. I just wonder whether you and the Treasury have an…”

“I am going to probe inward migration a bit more, but that initial question was about the people who are leaving. We now understand that more people are leaving Britain than we previously thought. Is it a concern to you that more people—we do not necessarily know the entire make-up of them—are leaving than we thought?”