Efficiency and resilience of the Probation Service

Status / emerging findings

• Risk assessment adequacy has plummeted from 60% (2018–19) to 28% (2024)—staff only properly evaluating danger in 1 in 3.5 cases
• Serious Further Offences by people on probation up 55% in 2023–24; overall recalls up 49% since June 2021
• MOJ operated on staffing data from 2008–09 until 2023, only then discovering probation needs ~15,000 sentence management staff but has ~7,500
• 21% vacancy rate in probation officer grade as of March 2025; even with planned recruitment of 1,300 staff, a deficit of at least 3,150 will remain
• Our Future Probation Service reform programme (rolling out over 18 months) aims to close capacity gap via digital tools and reduced supervision levels, but risks further disruption to already overworked staff

Why it matters

The Probation Service manages over 250,000 offenders annually; its collapse directly threatens public safety (55% rise in serious reoffences) and costs taxpayers £20.9 billion annually in reoffending costs.

Tone arc

Opened procedural in July 2025; by December 2025 evidence session became sharply adversarial, with MPs pressing witnesses on accountability for years of outdated data and systemic failures. MOJ witnesses defensive but conceded 'unsustainable' conditions.

Key witnesses

Dr Jo Farrar CB OBE, James McEwen, Jim Barton, Adam Bailey, Kim Thornden-Edwards, Ministry of Justice, HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS)