Committee publication · Correspondence · 4 December 2025
Letter from the Permanent Secretary of the Department of Work and Pensions relating to OBR fraud and error forecast, 1 December 2025
From: Public Accounts Committee
Inquiry: Tackling fraud and error in benefit expenditure 2024-25
Summary
The Permanent Secretary of the Department for Work and Pensions writes to the Public Accounts Committee ahead of a Thursday hearing to share the Office for Budgetary Responsibility's most recent forecast for fraud and error in Universal Credit. The forecast, published 26 November 2025, projects the fraud and error rate declining from 9.7% in 2024–25 to 7.5% by 2028–29, representing a halving from the 2021–22 pandemic peak of 14.7%.
Key findings
- Universal Credit fraud and error forecast shows decline from 9.7% (2024–25) to 7.5% (2028–29), approaching pre-pandemic levels.
- The 7.5% rate in 2028–29 represents a halving of the 14.7% rate in 2021–22.
- Universal Credit accounts for approximately two-thirds of overall monetary value of fraud and error (MVFE), implying overall MVFE would reach 2.8% by 2028–29.
- Forecast assumes planned savings in Pension Credit and that other benefits remain constant.
Tone
FactualTopics
Key actors
Sir Peter Schofield KCB, Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown MP, Public Accounts Committee, Office for Budgetary Responsibility, Department for Work and Pensions, Comptroller and Auditor General
Notable line
“The rate of 7.5% in 2028/29 would see the monetary value of fraud and error (MVFE) reach well below pre-pandemic levels.”
Key Quotes
“The rate of 7.5% in 2028/29 would see the monetary value of fraud and error (MVFE) reach well below pre-pandemic levels. It would represent a halving of the 14.7% rate in 2021/22.”
“Universal Credit represents around two-thirds of the current overall MVFE level …”
Source · parliament.uk record ↗